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Is it good to be bad or bad to be good? Assessing the aggregate impact of abnormal weather on consumer spending

Author

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  • Anna Pauliina Sandqvist

    (ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich)

  • Boriss Siliverstovs

    (Latvijas Banka
    KOF Swiss Economic Institute)

Abstract

Although the influence of exceptional weather on individual behaviour has already been acknowledged in finance, psychology, and marketing, the literature examining weather effects at more aggregate level is still limited. Further, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that weather anomalies affect consumer spending and retail business. The main aim of this analysis is to investigate and quantify the effects of unusual weather in consumer spending at macro-level. Using aggregate retail sales data for Switzerland, our findings reveal that weather deviations from seasonal norms, especially, unusually high or low temperatures in a given month, do cause sizeable intertemporal shifts in consumer spending at country level. Furthermore, the effects of abnormal weather are found to differ across seasons, both with respect to sign and magnitude. In particular, our findings indicate that weather effects manifest mainly through the seasons change channel: weather conditions in line with the coming season boost the purchases early in the season.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Pauliina Sandqvist & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Is it good to be bad or bad to be good? Assessing the aggregate impact of abnormal weather on consumer spending," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3059-3085, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-020-02006-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-02006-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Boldin & Jonathan H. Wright, 2015. "Weather-Adjusting Economic Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 227-278.
    2. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    3. Boriss Siliverstovs & Rainald Ötsch & Claudia Kemfert & Carlo Jaeger & Armin Haas & Hans Kremers, 2008. "Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 840, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Murray, Kyle B. & Di Muro, Fabrizio & Finn, Adam & Popkowski Leszczyc, Peter, 2010. "The effect of weather on consumer spending," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 512-520.
    5. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "The effects of weather on retail sales," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Meghan R. Busse & Devin G. Pope & Jaren C. Pope & Jorge Silva-Risso, 2015. "The Psychological Effect of Weather on Car Purchases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 371-414.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer spending; Intertemporal shifts; Retail sales; Unusual weather;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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