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Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Boriss Siliverstovs
  • Rainald Ötsch
  • Claudia Kemfert
  • Carlo Jaeger
  • Armin Haas
  • Hans Kremers

Abstract

This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Boriss Siliverstovs & Rainald Ötsch & Claudia Kemfert & Carlo Jaeger & Armin Haas & Hans Kremers, 2008. "Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 840, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp840
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.92089.de/dp840.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Pauliina Sandqvist & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Is it good to be bad or bad to be good? Assessing the aggregate impact of abnormal weather on consumer spending," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3059-3085, December.
    2. Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal & Edoardo Bucchignani & Elisa Palazzi & Donatella D’Onofrio & Paolo Gasparini & Warner Marzocchi, 2015. "Analysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 289-320, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; GEV; Bayesian modelling; Great Alpine Heat Wave;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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