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Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II

Author

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  • David F. Hendry
  • Katarina Juselius

Abstract

We describe the concept of cointegration, its implications in modelling and forecasting, and discuss inference procedures appropriate in integrated-cointegrated vector autoregressive processes (VARs). Particular attention is paid to the properties of VARs, to the modelling of deterministic terms, and to the determination of the number of cointegration vectors. The analysis is illustrated by empirical examples.

Suggested Citation

  • David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, , vol. 22(1), pages 75-120, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:22:y:2001:i:1:p:75-120
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No1-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    9. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; deterministic components; Rank determination; gasoline prices; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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