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The impacts of oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty on global stock markets

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  • Dohyoung Kwon

Abstract

This article examines interdependence between oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty and their effects on global stock markets within a structural VAR model over the last 40 years. I find that aggregate demand shocks cause a transitory rise in global real stock returns, whereas precautionary oil demand and United States economic uncertainty shocks decline the returns. Especially, oil demand shocks significantly increase United States economic uncertainty, indicating that their direct impacts on global stock markets are amplified by its endogenous response. Variance decomposition analysis shows that oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty explain 17% and 6% of long‐run variations in global real stock returns, respectively. These figures have more than tripled when the model is estimated on post 2000 data, suggesting that oil market fundamentals and United States macro uncertainty are an important determinant of global stock market movements.

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  • Dohyoung Kwon, 2022. "The impacts of oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty on global stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1595-1607, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:2:p:1595-1607
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2232
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    2. Sascha A. Keweloh, 2023. "Uncertain Short-Run Restrictions and Statistically Identified Structural Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2303.13281, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    3. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Indriawan, Ivan & Tse, Yiuman & Xu, Yahua, 2023. "Cross-asset time-series momentum: Crude oil volatility and global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Shabeer Khan & Mirzat Ullah & Mohammad Rahim Shahzad & Uzair Abdullah Khan & Umair Khan & Sayed M. Eldin & Abeer M. Alotaibi, 2022. "Spillover Connectedness among Global Uncertainties and Sectorial Indices of Pakistan: Evidence from Quantile Connectedness Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    6. Aharon, David Y. & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2023. "Cross-country study of the linkages between COVID-19, oil prices, and inflation in the G7 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Xi & Ye, Fangyu & Li, Shuang, 2024. "Frequency spillover effects and cross-quantile dependence between crude oil and stock markets: Evidence from BRICS and G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Roudari, Soheil & Mensi, Walid & Kharusi, Sami Al & Ahmadian-Yazdi, Farzaneh, 2023. "Impacts of oil shocks on stock markets in Norway and Japan: Does monetary policy's effectiveness matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 343-358.

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