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The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich
  • Andrew W. Lo

Abstract

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. To implement these results empirically, they employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test is robust to short-range dependence and is applied to quarterly and annual real GDP to determine the sources and nature of long-range dependence in the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:2001:i:qii:p:15-30
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    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    3. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across the U.S. States," Working Papers 201539, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Stengos, Thanasis & Yazgan, M. Ege, 2014. "Persistence In Convergence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 753-782, June.
    4. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Long memory in energy futures markets: Further evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 261-272.
    5. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    6. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, 2009. "The slow convergence of per capita income between the developing countries: “growth resistance” and sometimes “growth tragedy”," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Francis Ahking, 2010. "Non-parametric tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 439-456, October.
    9. Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Robert Mudida & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Kazeem A. Osuolale & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2021. "Mapping US presidential terms with S&P500 index: Time series analysis approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1938-1954, April.
    10. Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
    11. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
    12. Gianluca Moretti & Giulio Nicoletti, 2010. "Estimating DSGE models with unknown data persistence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 750, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long memory in US real output per capita," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 591-611, April.
    14. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across States in the U.S," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 147-161, May.
    15. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, 2012. "Testing Catching-Up Between The Developing Countries: “Growth Resistance” And Sometimes “Growth Tragedy”," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 470-508, October.
    16. Sakiru, Solarin Adebola & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gonzalez-Blanch, Maria Jesus, 2022. "Persistence of economic complexity in OECD countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2016. "Old Wine In A New Bottle: Trade Openness And Fdi Flows—Are The Emerging Economies Converging?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 336-351, April.
    18. Laura Mayoral, 2003. "Further Evidence on the Uncertain (Fractional) Unit Root in Real GNP," Working Papers 82, Barcelona School of Economics.

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