IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v39y2023i1d10.1007_s10680-023-09669-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parental Leave and Fertility: Individual-Level Responses in the Tempo and Quantum of Second and Third Births

Author

Listed:
  • Allan Puur

    (Tallinn University, Estonian Institute for Population Studies)

  • Sanan Abdullayev

    (Tallinn University, Estonian Institute for Population Studies)

  • Martin Klesment

    (Tallinn University, Estonian Institute for Population Studies)

  • Mark Gortfelder

    (Tallinn University, Estonian Institute for Population Studies)

Abstract

Previous studies have documented varying fertility responses to changes in parental leave provisions. We contribute to this literature by investigating the effects on the transition to second and third births of a policy reform that introduced generous earnings-dependent parental leave benefit in Estonia in 2004. Our study employs a mixture cure model, a model with some useful properties that has been seldom applied in fertility research. The advantage of the cure model over conventional event history models is the ability to distinguish the effect of the covariates on the propensity to have a next child from their effect on the tempo of childbearing. The results show that the transition to next birth accelerated as parents responded to so-called speed premium, a feature that allowed them to avoid a reduction in benefits caused by a reduction of earned income between births, through the closer spacing of births. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the introduction of generous earning-related parental leave was associated with a substantial increase in the progression to both second and third births.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Puur & Sanan Abdullayev & Martin Klesment & Mark Gortfelder, 2023. "Parental Leave and Fertility: Individual-Level Responses in the Tempo and Quantum of Second and Third Births," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-28, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:39:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-023-09669-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-023-09669-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-023-09669-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-023-09669-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Bongaarts, 2002. "The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 419-443, September.
    2. Vincent Bremhorst & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Philippe Lambert, 2016. "Fertility progression in Germany: An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(18), pages 505-534.
    3. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Tim Dyson, 2007. "On Causation in Demography: Issues and Illustrations," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 1-36, March.
    4. Joëlle Sleebos, 2003. "Low Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: Facts and Policy Responses," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    5. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Liili Abuladze & Luule Sakkeus & Sergei Zakharov, 2017. "Childbearing among first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia against the background of the sending and host countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(41), pages 1209-1254.
    6. Leen Rahnu & Allan Puur & Luule Sakkeus & Martin Klesment, 2015. "Partnership dynamics among migrants and their descendants in Estonia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(56), pages 1519-1566.
    7. Adeline Otto & Alzbeta Bártová & Wim Van Lancker, 2021. "Measuring the Generosity of Parental Leave Policies," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(2), pages 238-249.
    8. Eva Beaujouan & Caroline Berghammer, 2019. "The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 507-535, August.
    9. Tomas Frejka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 2: Parity distribution and completed family size in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(4), pages 47-72.
    10. Vitor Miranda, 2020. "Recent Trends in Birth Intervals in Sweden: A Decline of the Speed-Premium Effect?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 499-510, July.
    11. Colin Cannonier, 2014. "Does the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) Increase Fertility Behavior?," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 105-132, June.
    12. Spiess, C.Katharina & Wrohlich, Katharina, 2008. "The Parental Leave Benefit Reform in Germany: Costs and Labour Market Outcomes of Moving towards the Nordic Model," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27, pages 575-591.
    13. Luule Sakkeus & Liili Abuladze & Leen Rahnu & Allan Puur, 2019. "Non-marital childbearing of migrants and their descendants: Russians in Estonia compared with Russians in Russia and Estonians," Revue d'études comparatives Est-Ouest, Presses Universitaires de France, vol. 0(4), pages 69-113.
    14. Gunnar Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176.
    15. Gordon B. Dahl & Katrine V. Løken & Magne Mogstad & Kari Vea Salvanes, 2016. "What Is the Case for Paid Maternity Leave?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 655-670, October.
    16. Gunnar Andersson & Jan M. Hoem & Ann-Zofie Duvander, 2006. "Social differentials in speed-premium effects in childbearing in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(4), pages 51-70.
    17. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    18. Gunnar Andersson, 2002. "Fertility developments in Norway and Sweden since the early 1960s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(4), pages 67-86.
    19. Anna Šťastná & Jiřina Kocourková & Branislav Šprocha, 2020. "Parental Leave Policies and Second Births: A Comparison of Czechia and Slovakia," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(3), pages 415-437, June.
    20. Kamila Cygan-Rehm, 2016. "Parental leave benefit and differential fertility responses: evidence from a German reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 73-103, January.
    21. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur, 2010. "Effects of education on second births before and after societal transition: Evidence from the Estonian GGS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(28), pages 891-932.
    22. Alexia Prskawetz & Tomáš Sobotka & Isabella Buber-Ennser & Henriette Engelhardt & Richard Gisser, 2008. "Austria: Persistent low fertility since the mid-1980s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(12), pages 293-360.
    23. Alison Koslowski, 2021. "Capturing the Gender Gap in the Scope of Parenting Related Leave Policies Across Nations," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(2), pages 250-261.
    24. Allan Puur & Martin Klesment, 2011. "Signs Of A Stable Or Provisional Increase In Fertility? Reflections On Developments In Estonia," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 54(5), pages 31-55.
    25. Raute, Anna, 2019. "Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 203-222.
    26. Olivier Thévenon, 2011. "Family Policies in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 57-87, March.
    27. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    29. Edith Gray & Ann Evans & Jon Anderson & Rebecca Kippen, 2010. "Using Split-Population Models to Examine Predictors of the Probability and Timing of Parity Progression," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 275-295, August.
    30. Bremhorst, Vincent & Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Lambert, Philippe, 2016. "Fertility progression in Germany: An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2016023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    31. Mark Gortfelder & Allan Puur, 2020. "Survival and sex composition of offspring: Individual-level responses in the quantum and tempo of childbearing during the demographic transition," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(2), pages 161-177, June.
    32. Pau Baizan & Bruno Arpino & Carlos Eric Delclòs, 2016. "The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 1-30, February.
    33. Xiaoling Ang, 2015. "The Effects of Cash Transfer Fertility Incentives and Parental Leave Benefits on Fertility and Labor Supply: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 263-288, June.
    34. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    35. Frances Goldscheider & Eva Bernhardt & Trude Lappegård, 2015. "The Gender Revolution: A Framework for Understanding Changing Family and Demographic Behavior," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 207-239, June.
    36. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.
    37. Rafael Lalive & Josef Zweimüller, 2009. "How Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return to Work? Evidence from Two Natural Experiments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1363-1402.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Rannveig K. Hart, 2020. "Effects of policy on fertility. A systematic review of (quasi)experiments," Discussion Papers 922, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Jac Thomas & Francisco Rowe & Paul Williamson & Eric S. Lin, 2022. "The effect of leave policies on increasing fertility: a systematic review," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2021. "Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 913-964, December.
    4. Jennifer Glass & Carolyn E. Waldrep, 2023. "Child Allowances and Work-Family Reconciliation Policies: What Best Reduces Child Poverty and Gender Inequality While Enabling Desired Fertility?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-57, October.
    5. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    6. Huebener, Mathias & Kuehnle, Daniel & Spiess, C. Katharina, 2019. "Parental leave policies and socio-economic gaps in child development: Evidence from a substantial benefit reform using administrative data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Anna Šťastná & Jiřina Kocourková & Branislav Šprocha, 2020. "Parental Leave Policies and Second Births: A Comparison of Czechia and Slovakia," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(3), pages 415-437, June.
    8. Tudor, Simona, 2020. "Financial incentives, fertility and early life child outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Micaela Bassford & Hayley Fisher, 2020. "The Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Fertility Intentions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 402-430, December.
    10. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    11. Marco Le Moglie & Letizia Mencarini & Chiara Rapallini, 2019. "Does income moderate the satisfaction of becoming a parent? In Germany it does and depends on education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 915-952, July.
    12. Sunnee Billingsley & Gerda Neyer & Katharina Wesolowski, 2022. "Social Investment Policies and Childbearing Across 20 Countries: Longitudinal and Micro-Level Analyses," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 951-974, December.
    13. Kristen Harknett & Francesco Billari & Carla Medalia, 2014. "Do Family Support Environments Influence Fertility? Evidence from 20 European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 1-33, February.
    14. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    16. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    17. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    18. Lalive, Rafael, 2021. "Mothers at Work: How Mandating Paid Maternity Leave Affects Employment, Earnings and Fertility," CEPR Discussion Papers 16418, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Jonathan Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 487-518, July.
    20. Josefine Koebe & Jan Marcus, 2020. "The Impact of the Length of Schooling on the Timing of Family Formation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1896, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:39:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-023-09669-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.