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The Effect of COVID-19 on Fertility in India: Evidence from the National Family Health Survey

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  • Gby Atee

    (Ashoka University)

  • Aparajita Dasgupta

    (Ashoka University)

  • Sneha Lamba

    (Ashoka University)

Abstract

How fertility responds to the changes in the disease environment is an important question for understanding population dynamics. We investigate this question in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in India. We leverage the intensity of the nationwide mobility restrictions in difference-in-differences and event study frameworks to estimate the impact of the pandemic on fertility in the country. To do this, we harmonise district-wise data on lockdown intensity with birth histories from the latest round of the National Family Health Survey 2019-2021 (NFHS-5). We find a 0.2 percentage point increase in the probability of births in the post-COVID period compared to the pre-COVID period — the effect starts at nine months after the first lockdown in India and tapers off ten months later. Strikingly, the rise in fertility is most prominent in states with higher fertility rates at the baseline and in districts which are likely to have high reverse migration during COVID. We also find that the increase in fertility occurred for the higher order births. In contrast, we find a decline in the probability of first order births in districts with most restrictions on mobility. We explore potential mechanisms and find a significant decrease in the use of modern contraceptives in the post-COVID period, which aligns with our main finding. Our results have important implications for understanding fertility behaviour and human capital investments in the face of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gby Atee & Aparajita Dasgupta & Sneha Lamba, 2024. "The Effect of COVID-19 on Fertility in India: Evidence from the National Family Health Survey," Working Papers 115, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ash:wpaper:115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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