IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v43y2024i4d10.1007_s11113-024-09893-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Dench

    (Georgia Institute of Technology
    Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Wenhui Li

    (New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene)

  • Theodore Joyce

    (Baruch College, CUNY)

  • Howard Minkoff

    (Maimonides Medical Center
    State University of New York Downstate)

  • Gretchen Wye

    (New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
    Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health)

Abstract

We describe how the COVID-19 pandemic affected reproductive choices in New York City, the most acutely impacted area of the United States. We contrast changes in New York City with reproductive outcomes in the rest of the US. We find that births to New York City residents fell 8.4% more between March 2020 and February 2021 than would have been expected given trends before the pandemic. Births to US-born residents of New York City fell 5.5% over the same year, triple the decline in the rest of the US. Births to foreign-born New York City residents fell 11.4%, twice the decline in the rest of the US. Reported induced and spontaneous abortions to New York City residents fell precipitously whereas induced abortions nation-wide rose slightly. The acute downturn and robust recovery in New York City births maps closely with the spike in mortality and its rapid decline three months later.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Dench & Wenhui Li & Theodore Joyce & Howard Minkoff & Gretchen Wye, 2024. "Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09893-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09893-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-024-09893-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-024-09893-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Cherlin & Erin Cumberworth & S. Philip Morgan & Christopher Wimer, 2013. "The Effects of the Great Recession on Family Structure and Fertility," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 650(1), pages 214-231, November.
    2. Martha J. Bailey & Lea Bart & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2022. "The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1549-1569, August.
    3. Marcos A. Rangel & Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2020. "Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1647-1680, October.
    4. Martha J. Bailey & Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2022. "The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic," Working Papers 2022-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    5. Wilde, Joshua & Chen, Wei & Lohmann, Sophie, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Future of US Fertility: What Can We Learn from Google?," SocArXiv 2bgqs_v1, Center for Open Science.
    6. Daniel Schneider & Orestes Hastings, 2015. "Socioeconomic Variation in the Effect of Economic Conditions on Marriage and Nonmarital Fertility in the United States: Evidence From the Great Recession," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1893-1915, December.
    7. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    8. Shichao Du & Chin-Han Chan, 2023. "Baby Boom or Baby Bust After the COVID-19 Onset in the United States? Evidence from an ARIMA Time-Series Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Letícia J. Marteleto & Gilvan Guedes & Raquel Z. Coutinho & Abigail Weitzman, 2020. "Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 843-872, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Haifeng & Ampah, Jeffrey Dankwa & Afrane, Sandylove & Adun, Humphrey & Jin, Chao & Yao, Mingfa, 2023. "Deployment of hydrogen in hard-to-abate transport sectors under limited carbon dioxide removal (CDR): Implications on global energy-land-water system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Dench, Daniel & Pineda-Torres, Mayra & Myers, Caitlin, 2024. "The effects of post-Dobbs abortion bans on fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Maria Pesando & Alejandra Abufhele, 2022. "Declining Quantity and Quality of Births in Chile Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 20220081, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    3. Luca Maria Pesando & Alejandra Abufhele, 2024. "Declining Quantity and Quality of Births in Chile amidst the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S1), pages 75-99, July.
    4. Tomáš Sobotka & Kryštof Zeman & Aiva Jasilioniene & Maria Winkler‐Dworak & Zuzanna Brzozowska & Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza & László Németh & Dmitri Jdanov, 2024. "Pandemic Roller‐Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher‐Income Countries During the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S1), pages 23-58, July.
    5. Arpino, Bruno & Luppi, Francesca & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm_v1, Center for Open Science.
    6. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    7. Sobotka, Tomas & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza & Zeman, Kryštof & Nemeth, Laszlo & Jdanov, Dmitri, 2021. "Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series," SocArXiv mvy62, Center for Open Science.
    8. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    9. Singh, Parvati & Gemmill, Alison & Bruckner, Tim-Allen, 2023. "Casino-based cash transfers and fertility among the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina: A time-series analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Lawrence M Berger & Giulia Ferrari & Marion Leturcq & Lidia Panico & Anne Solaz, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-28, March.
    11. Martha J. Bailey & Lea Bart & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2022. "The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1549-1569, August.
    12. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Mizuki Komura & Hikaru Ogawa, 2022. "COVID-19, marriage, and divorce in Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 831-853, September.
    14. Shichao Du & Chin-Han Chan, 2023. "Baby Boom or Baby Bust After the COVID-19 Onset in the United States? Evidence from an ARIMA Time-Series Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Gonzalez, Fidel & Quast, Troy, 2022. "The relationship between abortion rates and economic fluctuations," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    16. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    17. Thaís García-Pereiro & Roberta Pace & Raffaella Patimo & Roberta Misuraca, 2024. "Fertility and unemployment in times of crisis in Italy," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 78(2), pages 208-210, April-Jun.
    18. Francesca Luppi & Alessandro Rosina & Bruno Arpino, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.
    19. Marcos A. Rangel & Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2020. "Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1647-1680, October.
    20. Wei-hsin Yu & Shengwei Sun, 2018. "Fertility responses to individual and contextual unemployment: Differences by socioeconomic background," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(35), pages 927-962.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; COVID;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09893-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.