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Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

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  • Samuel Preston
  • Andrew Stokes
  • Neil Mehta
  • Bochen Cao

Abstract

We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010–2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988–2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2014. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 27-49, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:1:p:27-49
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0246-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    4. Thomas, Kelsey L. & Dobis, Elizabeth A. & McGranahan, David A., 2024. "The Nature of the Rural-Urban Mortality Gap," Economic Information Bulletin 341639, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Joseph T. Lariscy & Robert A. Hummer & Richard G. Rogers, 2018. "Cigarette Smoking and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Adult Mortality in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1855-1885, October.
    6. Inwood, Kris & Oxley, Les & Roberts, Evan, 2022. "The mortality risk of being overweight in the twentieth century: Evidence from two cohorts of New Zealand men," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Alberto Palloni & Hiram Beltran-Sanchez, 2017. "The Impact of Obesity on Adult Mortality Assessment of Estimates with Applications," Working Papers WR-1193, RAND Corporation.
    8. David McCarthy, 2021. "80 will be the new 70: Old‐age mortality postponement in the United States and its likely effect on the finances of the OASI program," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-412, June.
    9. John Bongaarts, 2014. "Trends in Causes of Death in Low-Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 189-212, June.
    10. Tobias C. Vogt & Alyson A. van Raalte & Pavel Grigoriev & Mikko Myrskylä, 2016. "German East-West mortality difference: two cross-overs driven by smoking," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Kulhánová, Ivana & Hoffmann, Rasmus & Judge, Ken & Looman, Caspar W.N. & Eikemo, Terje A. & Bopp, Matthias & Deboosere, Patrick & Leinsalu, Mall & Martikainen, Pekka & Rychtaříková, Jitka & Wojtyniak,, 2014. "Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: Evidence from 21 European populations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 142-149.
    12. Alberto Palloni & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, 2017. "The Impact of Obesity on Adult Mortality: Assessment of Estimates with Applications," Working Papers 2017-044, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.

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