IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/compst/v36y2021i3d10.1007_s00180-021-01066-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian spectral density estimation using P-splines with quantile-based knot placement

Author

Listed:
  • Patricio Maturana-Russel

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Renate Meyer

    (University of Auckland)

Abstract

This article proposes a Bayesian approach to estimating the spectral density of a stationary time series using a prior based on a mixture of P-spline distributions. Our proposal is motivated by the B-spline Dirichlet process prior of Edwards et al. (Stat Comput 29(1):67–78, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-017-9796-9 ) in combination with Whittle’s likelihood and aims at reducing the high computational complexity of its posterior computations. The strength of the B-spline Dirichlet process prior over the Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior of Choudhuri et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 99(468):1050–1059, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214504000000557 ) lies in its ability to estimate spectral densities with sharp peaks and abrupt changes due to the flexibility of B-splines with variable number and location of knots. Here, we suggest to use P-splines of Eilers and Marx (Stat Sci 11(2):89–121, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1038425655 ) that combine a B-spline basis with a discrete penalty on the basis coefficients. In addition to equidistant knots, a novel strategy for a more expedient placement of knots is proposed that makes use of the information provided by the periodogram about the steepness of the spectral power distribution. We demonstrate in a simulation study and two real case studies that this approach retains the flexibility of the B-splines, achieves similar ability to accurately estimate peaks due to the new data-driven knot allocation scheme but significantly reduces the computational costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricio Maturana-Russel & Renate Meyer, 2021. "Bayesian spectral density estimation using P-splines with quantile-based knot placement," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 2055-2077, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:36:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00180-021-01066-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-021-01066-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00180-021-01066-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00180-021-01066-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. K. Carter & R. Kohn, 1997. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for Time Series with Mixed Spectra," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(1), pages 255-268.
    2. F. Perron & K. Mengersen, 2001. "Bayesian Nonparametric Modeling Using Mixtures of Triangular Distributions," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 518-528, June.
    3. Cadonna, Annalisa & Kottas, Athanasios & Prado, Raquel, 2017. "Bayesian mixture modeling for spectral density estimation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 189-195.
    4. Meier, Alexander & Kirch, Claudia & Meyer, Renate, 2020. "Bayesian nonparametric analysis of multivariate time series: A matrix Gamma Process approach," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    5. Lambert, Philippe, 2007. "Archimedean copula estimation using Bayesian splines smoothing techniques," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(12), pages 6307-6320, August.
    6. Jullion, Astrid & Lambert, Philippe, 2007. "Robust specification of the roughness penalty prior distribution in spatially adaptive Bayesian P-splines models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2542-2558, February.
    7. Nicholas G. Polson & James G. Scott & Jesse Windle, 2013. "Bayesian Inference for Logistic Models Using Pólya--Gamma Latent Variables," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(504), pages 1339-1349, December.
    8. Michael Wegener & Göran Kauermann, 2017. "Forecasting in nonlinear univariate time series using penalized splines," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 557-576, September.
    9. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
    10. Sonia Petrone, 1999. "Random Bernstein Polynomials," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 26(3), pages 373-393, September.
    11. Simon N. Wood & Matteo Fasiolo, 2017. "A generalized Fellner‐Schall method for smoothing parameter optimization with application to Tweedie location, scale and shape models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1071-1081, December.
    12. Gabriel Huerta & Mike West, 1999. "Bayesian Inference on Periodicities and Component Spectral Structure in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 401-416, July.
    13. Tatyana Krivobokova & Göran Kauermann & Theofanis Archontakis, 2006. "Estimating the term structure of interest rates using penalized splines," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 443-459, June.
    14. Bremhorst, Vincent & Lambert, Philippe, 2016. "Flexible estimation in cure survival models using Bayesian P-splines," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2016002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    15. Bremhorst, Vincent & Lambert, Philippe, 2016. "Flexible estimation in cure survival models using Bayesian P-splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 270-284.
    16. Ori Rosen & Sally Wood & David S. Stoffer, 2012. "AdaptSPEC: Adaptive Spectral Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1575-1589, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bremhorst, Vincent & Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Lambert, Philippe, 2017. "Nonparametric double additive cure survival models: an application to the estimation of the nonlinear effect of age at first parenthood on fertility progression," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2017004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    2. Philippe Lambert & Vincent Bremhorst, 2020. "Inclusion of time‐varying covariates in cure survival models with an application in fertility studies," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 333-354, January.
    3. Gressani, Oswaldo & Lambert, Philippe, 2016. "Fast Bayesian inference in semi-parametric P-spline cure survival models using Laplace approximations," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    4. Macaro, Christian, 2010. "Bayesian non-parametric signal extraction for Gaussian time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 381-395, August.
    5. Meier, Alexander & Kirch, Claudia & Meyer, Renate, 2020. "Bayesian nonparametric analysis of multivariate time series: A matrix Gamma Process approach," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Gressani, Oswaldo & Lambert, Philippe, 2018. "Fast Bayesian inference using Laplace approximations in a flexible promotion time cure model based on P-splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 151-167.
    7. Lambert, Philippe & Kreyenfeld, Michaela, 2023. "Exogenous time-varying covariates in double additive cure survival model with application to fertility," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2023006, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    8. Vincent Bremhorst & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Philippe Lambert, 2016. "Fertility progression in Germany: An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(18), pages 505-534.
    9. Narisetty, Naveen & Koenker, Roger, 2022. "Censored quantile regression survival models with a cure proportion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 192-203.
    10. Jaeger, Jonathan & Lambert, Philippe, 2012. "Bayesian penalized smoothing approaches in models specified using affine differential equations with unknown error distributions," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2012017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    11. Bremhorst, Vincent & Lambert, Philippe, 2013. "Flexible estimation in cure survival models using Bayesian P-splines," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013039, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    12. Dirick, Lore & Claeskens, Gerda & Vasnev, Andrey & Baesens, Bart, 2022. "A hierarchical mixture cure model with unobserved heterogeneity for credit risk," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 39-55.
    13. McCoy, E. J. & Stephens, D. A., 2004. "Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 713-730.
    14. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka & Philippe Lambert & Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2023. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-27, December.
    15. Mohamed Elamin Abdallah Mohamed Elamin Omer & Mohd Rizam Abu Bakar & Mohd Bakri Adam & Mohd Shafie Mustafa, 2020. "Cure Models with Exponentiated Weibull Exponential Distribution for the Analysis of Melanoma Patients," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-15, November.
    16. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "The Exponential Model for the Spectrum of a Time Series: Extensions and Applications," CEIS Research Paper 272, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 19 Apr 2013.
    17. Bremhorst, Vincent & Lambert, Philippe, 2016. "Flexible estimation in cure survival models using Bayesian P-splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 270-284.
    18. Lambert, Philippe & Eilers, Paul H.C., 2009. "Bayesian density estimation from grouped continuous data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 1388-1399, February.
    19. McVinish, R. & Mengersen, K., 2008. "Semiparametric Bayesian circular statistics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(10), pages 4722-4730, June.
    20. Hu, Zhixiong & Prado, Raquel, 2023. "Fast Bayesian inference on spectral analysis of multivariate stationary time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:36:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00180-021-01066-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.