IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/comgts/v20y2023i1d10.1007_s10287-023-00465-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implied volatility smoothing at COVID-19 times

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastiano Vitali

    (University of Bergamo)

  • Miloš Kopa

    (Charles University)

  • Gabriele Giana

    (University of Bergamo)

Abstract

This work aims at studying the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the global financial markets. In particular, such impact is analysed through the changes of the shape of the implied volatility smile of the options written on several equity indexes and on several stocks. The implied volatility function is estimated using the market-based information of liquid options and applying a semi-parametric smoothing technique that exploits a kernel function and no-arbitrage conditions. Such approach is applied to an extensive set of data to study the evolution of the implied volatility functions through the months of the pandemic. We show, in several cases, a sudden and massive change in the shape of the implied volatility functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastiano Vitali & Miloš Kopa & Gabriele Giana, 2023. "Implied volatility smoothing at COVID-19 times," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-42, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:20:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10287-023-00465-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10287-023-00465-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10287-023-00465-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10287-023-00465-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
    2. Matthias Fengler & Wolfgang Härdle & Christophe Villa, 2003. "The Dynamics of Implied Volatilities: A Common Principal Components Approach," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 179-202, October.
    3. Miloš Kopa & Sebastiano Vitali & Tomáš Tichý & Radek Hendrych, 2017. "Implied volatility and state price density estimation: arbitrage analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 559-583, October.
    4. Judith Glaser & Pascal Heider, 2012. "Arbitrage-free approximation of call price surfaces and input data risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 61-73, August.
    5. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Kim, Namhyoung & Lee, Jaewook, 2013. "No-arbitrage implied volatility functions: Empirical evidence from KOSPI 200 index options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 36-53.
    7. Robert Tompkins, 2001. "Implied volatility surfaces: uncovering regularities for options on financial futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 198-230.
    8. Reinhold Hafner & Martin Wallmeier, 2007. "Volatility as an Asset Class: European Evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 621-644.
    9. M. Benko & M. Fengler & W. Härdle & M. Kopa, 2007. "On extracting information implied in options," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 543-553, December.
    10. S. Muzzioli, 2010. "Option-based forecasts of volatility: an empirical study in the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 561-586.
    11. Cristian Homescu, 2011. "Implied Volatility Surface: Construction Methodologies and Characteristics," Papers 1107.1834, arXiv.org.
    12. C. J. Corrado & Tie Su, 1997. "Implied volatility skews and stock return skewness and kurtosis implied by stock option prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 73-85, March.
    13. Huisu Jang & Jaewook Lee, 2019. "Generative Bayesian neural network model for risk-neutral pricing of American index options," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 587-603, April.
    14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2059-2106 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. George Skiadopoulos & Stewart Hodges & Les Clewlow, 2000. "The Dynamics of the S&P 500 Implied Volatility Surface," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 263-282, October.
    17. Florian Ielpo & Guillaume Simon, 2010. "Mean-reversion properties of implied volatilities," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 587-610.
    18. Borovkova, Svetlana & Permana, Ferry J., 2009. "Implied volatility in oil markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2022-2039, April.
    19. Fengler, Matthias R. & Hin, Lin-Yee, 2015. "Semi-nonparametric estimation of the call-option price surface under strike and time-to-expiry no-arbitrage constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 242-261.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miloš Kopa & Sebastiano Vitali & Tomáš Tichý & Radek Hendrych, 2017. "Implied volatility and state price density estimation: arbitrage analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 559-583, October.
    2. Matúš Maciak & Sebastiano Vitali, 2024. "Using interpolated implied volatility for analysing exogenous market changes," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Kearney, Fearghal & Shang, Han Lin & Sheenan, Lisa, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: The case of commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Matthias Fengler & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen, 2005. "A Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model for Implied Volatility String Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    6. Zdeněk Drábek & Miloš Kopa & Matúš Maciak & Michal Pešta & Sebastiano Vitali, 2023. "Investment disputes and their explicit role in option market uncertainty and overall risk instability," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Connor J.A. Stuart & Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang & Xinfeng Ruan, 2021. "Implied volatility smirk in the Australian dollar market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4573-4599, September.
    8. Fengler, Matthias & Hin, Lin-Yee, 2011. "Semi-nonparametric estimation of the call price surface under strike and time-to-expiry no-arbitrage constraints," Economics Working Paper Series 1136, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised May 2013.
    9. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Mammen, Enno, 2005. "A dynamic semiparametric factor model for implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-020, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Jianhui Li & Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2019. "How do US options traders “smirk” on China? Evidence from FXI options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1450-1470, November.
    11. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
    12. Martin Tegn'er & Stephen Roberts, 2019. "A Probabilistic Approach to Nonparametric Local Volatility," Papers 1901.06021, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    13. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
    14. Wenyong Zhang & Lingfei Li & Gongqiu Zhang, 2021. "A Two-Step Framework for Arbitrage-Free Prediction of the Implied Volatility Surface," Papers 2106.07177, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    15. Martin Magris & Perttu Barholm & Juho Kanniainen, 2017. "Implied volatility smile dynamics in the presence of jumps," Papers 1711.02925, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    16. Ulze, Markus & Stadler, Johannes & Rathgeber, Andreas W., 2021. "No country for old distributions? On the comparison of implied option parameters between the Brownian motion and variance gamma process," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-184.
    17. Fengler, Matthias R. & Wang, Qihua, 2003. "Fitting the Smile Revisited: A Least Squares Kernel Estimator for the Implied Volatility Surface," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    18. Itkin, Andrey, 2015. "To sigmoid-based functional description of the volatility smile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 264-291.
    19. Fengler, Matthias R. & Hin, Lin-Yee, 2015. "Semi-nonparametric estimation of the call-option price surface under strike and time-to-expiry no-arbitrage constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 242-261.
    20. Ciprian Necula & Gabriel Drimus & Walter Farkas, 2019. "A general closed form option pricing formula," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-40, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:20:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10287-023-00465-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.