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Volatility as an Asset Class: European Evidence

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  • Reinhold Hafner
  • Martin Wallmeier

Abstract

Volatility movements are known to be negatively correlated with stock index returns. Hence, investing in volatility appears to be attractive for investors seeking risk diversification. The most common instruments for investing in pure volatility are variance swaps, which now enjoy an active over-the-counter (OTC) market. This paper investigates the risk-return tradeoff of variance swaps on the Deutscher Aktienindex and Euro STOXX 50 index over the time period from 1995 to 2004. We synthetically derive variance swap rates from the smile in option prices. Using quotes from two large investment banks over two months, we validate that the synthetic values are close to OTC market prices. We find that variance swap returns exhibit an option-like profile compared to returns of the underlying index. Given this pattern, it is crucial to account for the non-normality of returns in measuring the performance of variance swap investments. As in the US, the average returns of selling variance swaps are found to be strongly positive and too large to be compatible with standard equilibrium models. The magnitude of the estimated risk premium is related to variance uncertainty and past index returns. This indicates that the variance swap rate does not seem to incorporate all past information relevant for forecasting future realized variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhold Hafner & Martin Wallmeier, 2007. "Volatility as an Asset Class: European Evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 621-644.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:13:y:2007:i:7:p:621-644
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470701380142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
    2. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Yan, Shu, 2004. "Jump and Volatility Risk and Risk Premia: A New Model and Lessons from S&P 500 Options," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5dv8v999, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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    1. Wallmeier,, 2016. "Entwicklungslinien in der Portfoliotheorie und im Asset Management," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 70(4), pages 407-422.
    2. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2021. "A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Jonathan Batten & Brian Lucey & Frank McGroarty & Maurice Peat & Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "Stylized facts of intraday precious metals," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Detering, Nils & Zhou, Qixiang & Wystup, Uwe, 2012. "Volatilität als Investment: Diversifikationseigenschaften von Volatilitätsstrategien," CPQF Working Paper Series 30, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Centre for Practical Quantitative Finance (CPQF).
    5. Marie Briere & Alexandre Burgues & Ombretta Signori, 2008. "Volatility Exposure for Strategic Asset Allocation," Working Papers CEB 08-034.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Martin Wallmeier, 2011. "Beyond payoff diagrams: how to present risk and return characteristics of structured products," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 313-338, September.
    7. Sarac, Burak, 2021. "Varianzrisikoprämien auf deutsche Staatsanleihen [Variance Risk Premiums on German Government Bonds]," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 6(2), pages 370-392.
    8. Stavros Degiannakis & Christos Floros & Enrique Salvador & Dimitrios Vougas, 2022. "On the stationarity of futures hedge ratios," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 2281-2303, July.
    9. Elvira Caloiero & Massimo Guidolin, 2017. "Volatility as an Alternative asset Class: Does It Improve Portfolio Performance?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1763, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Hayette Gatfaoui, 2010. "Investigating the dependence structure between credit default swap spreads and the U.S. financial market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 511-535, October.
    11. Dörries, Julian & Korn, Olaf & Power, Gabriel J., 2023. "How should the long-term investor harvest variance risk premiums?," CFR Working Papers 23-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    12. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Mᵃ Isabel Martínez-Torre-Enciso, 2021. "Enhancing Portfolio Performance and VIX Futures Trading Timing with Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou & Natasa Todorovic, 2015. "Daily volume, intraday and overnight returns for volatility prediction: profitability or accuracy?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 251-278, August.
    14. Martin Wallmeier, 2024. "Quality issues of implied volatilities of index and stock options in the OptionMetrics IvyDB database," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 854-875, May.
    15. Sebastiano Vitali & Miloš Kopa & Gabriele Giana, 2023. "Implied volatility smoothing at COVID-19 times," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-42, December.

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