IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v7y2018i3p90-d160537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tropical Protected Areas Under Increasing Threats from Climate Change and Deforestation

Author

Listed:
  • Karyn Tabor

    (Betty & Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA)

  • Jennifer Hewson

    (Betty & Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA)

  • Hsin Tien

    (Betty & Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA)

  • Mariano González-Roglich

    (Betty & Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA)

  • David Hole

    (Betty & Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA)

  • John W. Williams

    (Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA)

Abstract

Identifying protected areas most susceptible to climate change and deforestation represents critical information for determining conservation investments. Development of effective landscape interventions is required to ensure the preservation and protection of these areas essential to ecosystem service provision, provide high biodiversity value, and serve a critical habitat connectivity role. We identified vulnerable protected areas in the humid tropical forest biome using climate metrics for 2050 and future deforestation risk for 2024 modeled from historical deforestation and global drivers of deforestation. Results show distinct continental and regional patterns of combined threats to protected areas. Eleven Mha (2%) of global humid tropical protected area was exposed to the highest combined threats and should be prioritized for investments in landscape interventions focused on adaptation to climate stressors. Global tropical protected area exposed to the lowest deforestation risk but highest climate risks totaled 135 Mha (26%). Thirty-five percent of South America’s protected area fell into this risk category and should be prioritized for increasing protected area size and connectivity to facilitate species movement. Global humid tropical protected area exposed to a combination of the lowest deforestation and lowest climate risks totaled 89 Mha (17%), and were disproportionately located in Africa (34%) and Asia (17%), indicating opportunities for low-risk conservation investments for improved connectivity to these potential climate refugia. This type of biome-scale, protected area analysis, combining both climate change and deforestation threats, is critical to informing policies and landscape interventions to maximize investments for environmental conservation and increase ecosystem resilience to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Karyn Tabor & Jennifer Hewson & Hsin Tien & Mariano González-Roglich & David Hole & John W. Williams, 2018. "Tropical Protected Areas Under Increasing Threats from Climate Change and Deforestation," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:7:y:2018:i:3:p:90-:d:160537
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/7/3/90/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/7/3/90/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana S. L. Rodrigues & Sandy J. Andelman & Mohamed I. Bakarr & Luigi Boitani & Thomas M. Brooks & Richard M. Cowling & Lincoln D. C. Fishpool & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Kevin J. Gaston & Michael Hoff, 2004. "Effectiveness of the global protected area network in representing species diversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6983), pages 640-643, April.
    2. Stuart L. Pimm & Peter Raven, 2000. "Extinction by numbers," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 843-845, February.
    3. B D Spracklen & M Kalamandeen & D Galbraith & E Gloor & D V Spracklen, 2015. "A Global Analysis of Deforestation in Moist Tropical Forest Protected Areas," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Alejandro Ordonez & John W. Williams & Jens-Christian Svenning, 2016. "Mapping climatic mechanisms likely to favour the emergence of novel communities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1104-1109, December.
    5. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    6. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    7. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    8. Scott R. Loarie & Philip B. Duffy & Healy Hamilton & Gregory P. Asner & Christopher B. Field & David D. Ackerly, 2009. "The velocity of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1052-1055, December.
    9. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
    10. Robert M. Pringle, 2017. "Upgrading protected areas to conserve wild biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 546(7656), pages 91-99, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mayer, Alex & Jones, Kelly & Hunt, David & Manson, Robert & Carter Berry, Z. & Asbjornsen, Heidi & Wright, Timothy Max & Salcone, Jacob & Lopez Ramirez, Sergio & Ávila-Foucat, Sophie & Von Thaden Ugal, 2022. "Assessing ecosystem service outcomes from payments for hydrological services programs in Veracruz, Mexico: Future deforestation threats and spatial targeting," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Correa, Alicia & Forero, Jorge & Marco Renau, Jorge & Lizarazo, Ivan & Mulligan, Mark & Codato, Daniele, 2023. "Advancing spatial decision-making in a transboundary catchment through multidimensional ecosystem services assessment," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Xiang Feng & Qian Peng & Yunnan Chen & Weiyue Li, 2022. "A Case Study of the Snow Leopard in Sanjiangyuan National Park Boundaries regarding Park Boundary Divergence," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Anke S. K. Frank & Livia Schäffler, 2019. "Identifying Key Knowledge Gaps to Better Protect Biodiversity and Simultaneously Secure Livelihoods in a Priority Conservation Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Robert F. Baldwin & Karen F. Beazley, 2019. "Emerging Paradigms for Biodiversity and Protected Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-12, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    2. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    3. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    5. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    6. Sang-Don Lee, 2017. "Global Warming Leading to Phenological Responses in the Process of Urbanization, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-27, November.
    7. Katherine Dagon & Daniel P. Schrag, 2019. "Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 235-251, March.
    8. Brooks, Wesley R. & Newbold, Stephen C., 2014. "An updated biodiversity nonuse value function for use in climate change integrated assessment models," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 342-349.
    9. Yuncheng Zhao & Mingyue Zhao & Lei Zhang & Chunyi Wang & Yinlong Xu, 2021. "Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea ( Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.
    10. Dissanayake, Sahan T.M. & Önal, Hayri & Westervelt, James D. & Balbach, Harold E., 2012. "Incorporating species relocation in reserve design models: An example from Ft. Benning GA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 65-75.
    11. Jing Zhen & Xinyuan Wang & Qingkai Meng & Jingwei Song & Ying Liao & Bo Xiang & Huadong Guo & Chuansheng Liu & Ruixia Yang & Lei Luo, 2018. "Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050): A Case Study in Ya’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    12. Kato, E., 2009. "Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change?: insights from the Nile Basin in Ethiopia," IWMI Working Papers H042477, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Omann, Ines & Stocker, Andrea & Jäger, Jill, 2009. "Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 24-31, November.
    14. V. P. Khanduri & C. M. Sharma & S. P. Singh, 2008. "The effects of climate change on plant phenology," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 143-147, June.
    15. Guanjie Jiao & Xiawei Shentu & Xiaochen Zhu & Wenbo Song & Yujia Song & Kexuan Yang, 2022. "Utility of Deep Learning Algorithms in Initial Flowering Period Prediction Models," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Gregorio Moreno-Rueda & Juan Pleguezuelos & Esmeralda Alaminos, 2009. "Climate warming and activity period extension in the Mediterranean snake Malpolon monspessulanus," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 235-242, January.
    17. Mayeul Dalleau & Stéphane Ciccione & Jeanne A Mortimer & Julie Garnier & Simon Benhamou & Jérôme Bourjea, 2012. "Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    18. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    19. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    20. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:7:y:2018:i:3:p:90-:d:160537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.