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Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Hoffmann

    (University of Bayreuth)

  • Severin D. H. Irl

    (University of Bayreuth
    University of Bayreuth
    Goethe-University)

  • Carl Beierkuhnlein

    (University of Bayreuth
    University of Bayreuth
    GIB)

Abstract

Protected areas (PA) are refugia of biodiversity. However, anthropogenic climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of PAs. When species are forced to migrate from protected to unprotected areas to track suitable climate, they often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Here, we assess how climate conditions are expected to shift within the world’s terrestrial PAs (n = 137,432). PAs in the temperate and northern high-latitude biomes are predicted to obtain especially high area proportions of climate conditions that are novel within the PA network at the local, regional and global scale by the end of this century. These PAs are predominantly small, at low elevation, with low environmental heterogeneity, high human pressure, and low biotic uniqueness. Our results guide adaptation measures towards PAs that are strongly affected by climate change, and of low adaption capacity and high conservation value.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Hoffmann & Severin D. H. Irl & Carl Beierkuhnlein, 2019. "Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12603-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12603-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Nirunrut Pomoim & Robert J. Zomer & Alice C. Hughes & Richard T. Corlett, 2021. "The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Li Zhao & Mingxi Du & Wei Du & Jiahuan Guo & Ziyan Liao & Xiang Kang & Qiuyu Liu, 2022. "Evaluation of the Carbon Sink Capacity of the Proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.

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