IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v172y2022i3d10.1007_s10584-022-03370-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Baronetti

    (University of Turin
    National Research Council)

  • Vincent Dubreuil

    (Université Rennes 2, UMR 6554, CNRS, LETG)

  • Antonello Provenzale

    (National Research Council)

  • Simona Fratianni

    (University of Turin)

Abstract

We analyse the expected characteristics of drought events in northern Italy for baseline (1971–2000), near (2021–2050), and far (2071–2100) future conditions, estimating the drought spatial extent and duration, the percentage of affected area, and the frequency of drought episodes. To this end, daily ensembles of precipitation and temperature records from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) pairs, extracted from EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, are collected at spatial resolution of 0.11 degrees. Before the analysis, model outputs are validated on daily weather station time series, and scaling factors for possible use in bias correction are identified. Annual temperature and precipitation anomalies for near and far future conditions are investigated; drought events are identified by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index at the 12-, 24-, and 36-month timescales. This study highlights the importance of using multiple drought indicators in the detection of drought events, since the comparison reveals that evapotranspiration anomaly is the main triggering factor. For both scenarios, the results indicate an intensification of droughts in northern Italy for the period 2071–2100, with the Alpine chain being especially affected by an increase of drought severity. A North-to-South spatial gradient of drought duration is also observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Baronetti & Vincent Dubreuil & Antonello Provenzale & Simona Fratianni, 2022. "Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03370-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03370-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03370-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03370-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joan Lopez-Bustins & Diana Pascual & Eduard Pla & Javier Retana, 2013. "Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1405-1421, December.
    2. Chantal Donnelly & Wouter Greuell & Jafet Andersson & Dieter Gerten & Giovanna Pisacane & Philippe Roudier & Fulco Ludwig, 2017. "Erratum to: Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 535-535, August.
    3. Adriaan J. Teuling, 2018. "A hot future for European droughts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 364-365, May.
    4. Chantal Donnelly & Wouter Greuell & Jafet Andersson & Dieter Gerten & Giovanna Pisacane & Philippe Roudier & Fulco Ludwig, 2017. "Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 13-26, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Rizzo Pesci & Elena Teobaldi & Giuseppe Maina & Gianluca Rosso, 2024. "Climate Change and Psychiatry: The Correlation between the Mean Monthly Temperature and Admissions to an Acute Inpatient Unit," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(7), pages 1-11, June.
    2. Auci, Sabrina & Pronti, Andrea, 2023. "Irrigation technology adaptation for a sustainable agriculture: A panel endogenous switching analysis on the Italian farmland productivity," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gianluigi Busico & Maria Margarita Ntona & Sílvia C. P. Carvalho & Olga Patrikaki & Konstantinos Voudouris & Nerantzis Kazakis, 2021. "Simulating Future Groundwater Recharge in Coastal and Inland Catchments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3617-3632, September.
    2. Yi Yang & Jianping Tang, 2023. "Downscaling and uncertainty analysis of future concurrent long-duration dry and hot events in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Thibault Lemaitre-Basset & Ludovic Oudin & Guillaume Thirel, 2022. "Evapotranspiration in hydrological models under rising CO2: a jump into the unknown," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Muhammad Ishfaque & Qianwei Dai & Nuhman ul Haq & Khanzaib Jadoon & Syed Muzyan Shahzad & Hammad Tariq Janjuhah, 2022. "Use of Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory for Seepage Prediction at Tarbela Dam, KP, Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Charlotte Poussin & Yaniss Guigoz & Elisa Palazzi & Silvia Terzago & Bruno Chatenoux & Gregory Giuliani, 2019. "Snow Cover Evolution in the Gran Paradiso National Park, Italian Alps, Using the Earth Observation Data Cube," Data, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-25, October.
    6. Si Xie & Tianshu Li & Ke Cao, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Emission Control on Urban Economic Indicators based on the Concept of Green Economy under Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Rejani Raghavan & Kondru Venkateswara Rao & Maheshwar Shivashankar Shirahatti & Duvvala Kalyana Srinivas & Kotha Sammi Reddy & Gajjala Ravindra Chary & Kodigal A. Gopinath & Mohammed Osman & Mathyam P, 2022. "Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Variations in Runoff Potential under Changing Climatic Scenarios in Northern Part of Karnataka in India Using Geospatial Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Yeshewatesfa Hundecha & Berit Arheimer & Peter Berg & René Capell & Jude Musuuza & Ilias Pechlivanidis & Christiana Photiadou, 2020. "Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1287-1306, December.
    9. Buddhi Wijesiri & Erick Bandala & An Liu & Ashantha Goonetilleke, 2020. "A Framework for Stormwater Quality Modelling under the Effects of Climate Change to Enhance Reuse," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Renata Graf & Viktor Vyshnevskyi, 2022. "Forecasting Monthly River Flows in Ukraine under Different Climatic Conditions," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Jinhua Wen & Yian Hua & Chenkai Cai & Shiwu Wang & Helong Wang & Xinyan Zhou & Jian Huang & Jianqun Wang, 2023. "Probabilistic Forecast and Risk Assessment of Flash Droughts Based on Numeric Weather Forecast: A Case Study in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Moritz von Cossel & Andrea Bauerle & Meike Boob & Ulrich Thumm & Martin Elsaesser & Iris Lewandowski, 2019. "The Performance of Mesotrophic Arrhenatheretum Grassland under Different Cutting Frequency Regimes for Biomass Production in Southwest Germany," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano & Tim R. McVicar & Diego G. Miralles & Yuting Yang & Miquel Tomas‐Burguera, 2020. "Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    14. Xiangtao Wang & Zhigang Hu & Ziwei Zhang & Jiwang Tang & Ben Niu, 2024. "Altitude-Shifted Climate Variables Dominate the Drought Effects on Alpine Grasslands over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Yinmao Zhao & Zhansheng Li & Siyu Cai & Hao Wang, 2020. "Characteristics of extreme precipitation and runoff in the Xijiang River Basin at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 669-688, April.
    16. Moritz Von Cossel & Iris Lewandowski & Berien Elbersen & Igor Staritsky & Michiel Van Eupen & Yasir Iqbal & Stefan Mantel & Danilo Scordia & Giorgio Testa & Salvatore Luciano Cosentino & Oksana Maliar, 2019. "Marginal Agricultural Land Low-Input Systems for Biomass Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    17. Funes, Inmaculada & Aranda, Xavier & Biel, Carmen & Carbó, Joaquim & Camps, Francesc & Molina, Antonio J. & Herralde, Felicidad de & Grau, Beatriz & Savé, Robert, 2016. "Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P1), pages 19-27.
    18. Von Cossel, M. & Lewin, E. & Lewandowski, I. & Jablonowski, N.D., 2024. "Energy yield decline of Sida hermaphrodita harvested for biogas production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 190(PB).
    19. Emilio Laino & Gregorio Iglesias, 2024. "High-level characterisation and mapping of key climate-change hazards in European coastal cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(4), pages 3623-3659, March.
    20. Anabel Sanchez-Plaza & Annelies Broekman & Pilar Paneque, 2019. "Analytical Framework to Assess the Incorporation of Climate Change Adaptation in Water Management: Application to the Tordera River Basin Adaptation Plan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03370-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.