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Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Baronetti

    (University of Turin
    National Research Council)

  • Vincent Dubreuil

    (Université Rennes 2, UMR 6554, CNRS, LETG)

  • Antonello Provenzale

    (National Research Council)

  • Simona Fratianni

    (University of Turin)

Abstract

We analyse the expected characteristics of drought events in northern Italy for baseline (1971–2000), near (2021–2050), and far (2071–2100) future conditions, estimating the drought spatial extent and duration, the percentage of affected area, and the frequency of drought episodes. To this end, daily ensembles of precipitation and temperature records from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) pairs, extracted from EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, are collected at spatial resolution of 0.11 degrees. Before the analysis, model outputs are validated on daily weather station time series, and scaling factors for possible use in bias correction are identified. Annual temperature and precipitation anomalies for near and far future conditions are investigated; drought events are identified by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index at the 12-, 24-, and 36-month timescales. This study highlights the importance of using multiple drought indicators in the detection of drought events, since the comparison reveals that evapotranspiration anomaly is the main triggering factor. For both scenarios, the results indicate an intensification of droughts in northern Italy for the period 2071–2100, with the Alpine chain being especially affected by an increase of drought severity. A North-to-South spatial gradient of drought duration is also observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Baronetti & Vincent Dubreuil & Antonello Provenzale & Simona Fratianni, 2022. "Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03370-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03370-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adriaan J. Teuling, 2018. "A hot future for European droughts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 364-365, May.
    2. Chantal Donnelly & Wouter Greuell & Jafet Andersson & Dieter Gerten & Giovanna Pisacane & Philippe Roudier & Fulco Ludwig, 2017. "Erratum to: Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 535-535, August.
    3. Chantal Donnelly & Wouter Greuell & Jafet Andersson & Dieter Gerten & Giovanna Pisacane & Philippe Roudier & Fulco Ludwig, 2017. "Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 13-26, July.
    4. Joan Lopez-Bustins & Diana Pascual & Eduard Pla & Javier Retana, 2013. "Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1405-1421, December.
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    2. Auci, Sabrina & Pronti, Andrea, 2023. "Irrigation technology adaptation for a sustainable agriculture: A panel endogenous switching analysis on the Italian farmland productivity," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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