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Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

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  • Ludwig, Fulco
  • Asseng, Senthold

Abstract

Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates. We used a crop-soil simulation model (APSIM-Nwheat) to test whether changes in physiological traits, related to early vigor and flowering time, would result in increased yield when compared to traditional cultivars of wheat grown at higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO2 and lower rainfall in a Mediterranean climate. Early vigor was simulated by changing four different plant traits. The impact of each trait on grain yield varied with climate scenario and soil type. Higher specific leaf area had minimal effect on yield for the historical climate, but it could increase production in future warmer climates. Increased rooting depth generally had a positive impact on yield, while lower radiation use efficiency and earlier flowering tended to reduce yield. The interaction between these traits was generally positive, and our results indicate that early vigor may improve yield for a range of future climate scenarios. However, in the low rainfall regions, early vigor is unlikely to compensate for rainfall reductions of [greater-or-equal, slanted]30%. Yield gains for early vigor are likely to be larger on sandy loam than on heavier clay soil. The simulation of cultivars differing in flowering time showed that in drier climates earlier flowering cultivars increase potential yield while in warming climates later cultivars increase yield. In conclusion, our analyses suggest that there is great potential for adapting wheat systems to climate change by introducing cultivars with new traits. Our results also show how simulation analyses can assist plant breeders in determining which traits could be important for crop production in future climates.

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  • Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2010. "Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 127-136, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:3:p:127-136
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    1. Fulco Ludwig & Stephen Milroy & Senthold Asseng, 2009. "Impacts of recent climate change on wheat production systems in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 495-517, February.
    2. Mike Hulme & Elaine M. Barrow & Nigel W. Arnell & Paula A. Harrison & Timothy C. Johns & Thomas E. Downing, 1999. "Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 688-691, February.
    3. Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2006. "Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 159-179, October.
    4. Richter, G.M. & Semenov, M.A., 2005. "Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 77-97, April.
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    1. A. Potgieter & H. Meinke & A. Doherty & V. Sadras & G. Hammer & S. Crimp & D. Rodriguez, 2013. "Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 163-179, March.
    2. Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Chen, Chao & Liu, De Li & Waters, Cathy & Yu, Qiang, 2019. "Designing wheat ideotypes to cope with future changing climate in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 9-18.
    3. De Li Liu & Garry J. O’Leary & Brendan Christy & Ian Macadam & Bin Wang & Muhuddin R. Anwar & Anna Weeks, 2017. "Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 687-701, October.
    4. Senthold Asseng & David Pannell, 2013. "Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 167-181, May.
    5. Jaime Gaona & Pilar Benito-Verdugo & José Martínez-Fernández & Ángel González-Zamora & Laura Almendra-Martín & Carlos Miguel Herrero-Jiménez, 2022. "Soil Moisture Outweighs Climatic Factors in Critical Periods for Rainfed Cereal Yields: An Analysis in Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Zunfu Lv & Yan Zhu & Xiaojun Liu & Hongbao Ye & Yongchao Tian & Feifei Li, 2018. "Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 523-537, April.
    7. Ghanem, Michel Edmond & Marrou, Hélène & Biradar, Chandrashekhar & Sinclair, Thomas R., 2015. "Production potential of Lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) in East Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 24-38.
    8. Katharina Waha & John Clarke & Kavina Dayal & Mandy Freund & Craig Heady & Irene Parisi & Elisabeth Vogel, 2022. "Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Gastelo, Manuel & Ritchie, Joe & Nelson, Gerald & Asseng, Senthold, 2016. "Simulating cultivar variations in potato yields for contrasting environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 51-63.
    10. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    11. Kothari, Kritika & Ale, Srinivasulu & Attia, Ahmed & Rajan, Nithya & Xue, Qingwu & Munster, Clyde L., 2019. "Potential climate change adaptation strategies for winter wheat production in the Texas High Plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. He, Pinglin & Zhang, Shuhao & Wang, Lei & Ning, Jing, 2023. "Will environmental taxes help to mitigate climate change? A comparative study based on OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1440-1464.
    13. Mehdi JOUDI & Wim VAN DEN ENDE, 2018. "Genotypic variation in pre- and post-anthesis dry matter remobilization in Iranian wheat cultivars: associations with stem characters and grain yield," Czech Journal of Genetics and Plant Breeding, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 54(3), pages 123-134.
    14. Sun, Shuang & Yang, Xiaoguang & Lin, Xiaomao & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Li, Kenan, 2018. "Climate-smart management can further improve winter wheat yield in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 10-18.

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    Keywords

    APSIM Australia CO2 Crop production Global change;

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