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Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed

Author

Listed:
  • Munehiko Yamaguchi

    (Japan Meteorological Agency)

  • Johnny C. L. Chan

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Il-Ju Moon

    (Jeju National University)

  • Kohei Yoshida

    (Japan Meteorological Agency)

  • Ryo Mizuta

    (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Abstract

Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951–2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.

Suggested Citation

  • Munehiko Yamaguchi & Johnny C. L. Chan & Il-Ju Moon & Kohei Yoshida & Ryo Mizuta, 2020. "Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-13902-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13902-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Brannlund, Johan & Dunbar, Geoffrey & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Krutkiewicz, Matthew, 2023. "Weather the storms? Resilience investment and production losses after hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Johan Brannlund & Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Reinhard Ellwanger & Matthew Krutkiewicz, 2022. "Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production," Staff Working Papers 22-36, Bank of Canada.
    3. Ohba, Masamichi & Kanno, Yuki & Nohara, Daisuke, 2022. "Climatology of dark doldrums in Japan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Xiangbo Feng & Nicholas P. Klingaman & Kevin I. Hodges, 2021. "Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Nobuhito Mori & Nozomi Ariyoshi & Tomoya Shimura & Takuya Miyashita & Junichi Ninomiya, 2021. "Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Jian Shi & Xiangbo Feng & Ralf Toumi & Chi Zhang & Kevin I. Hodges & Aifeng Tao & Wei Zhang & Jinhai Zheng, 2024. "Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Naoto Inagaki & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Tomoyuki Takabatake, 2021. "Effect of translate speed of typhoon on wind waves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 841-858, January.
    8. Shifei Tu & Johnny C. L. Chan & Jianjun Xu & Quanjia Zhong & Wen Zhou & Yu Zhang, 2022. "Increase in tropical cyclone rain rate with translation speed," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

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