IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v163y2020i3d10.1007_s10584-020-02800-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality

Author

Listed:
  • Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Pim Dorst

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Maarten Berg

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Rita Dingenen

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Zbigniew Klimont

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Mitigation of black carbon (BC) aerosol emissions can potentially contribute to both reducing air pollution and climate change, although mixed results have been reported regarding the latter. A detailed quantification of the synergy between global air quality and climate policy is still lacking. This study contributes with an integrated assessment model-based scenario analysis of BC-focused mitigation strategies aimed at maximizing air quality and climate benefits. The impacts of these policy strategies have been examined under different socio-economic conditions, climate ambitions, and BC mitigation strategies. The study finds that measures targeting BC emissions (including reduction of co-emitted organic carbon, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxides) result in significant decline in premature mortality due to ambient air pollution, in the order of 4 to 12 million avoided deaths between 2015 and 2030. Under certain circumstances, BC mitigation can also reduce climate change, i.e., mainly by lowering BC emissions in the residential sector and in high BC emission scenarios. Still, the effect of BC mitigation on global mean temperature is found to be modest at best (with a maximum short-term GMT decrease of 0.02 °C in 2030) and could even lead to warming (with a maximum increase of 0.05 °C in case of a health-focused strategy, where all aerosols are strongly reduced). At the same time, strong climate policy would improve air quality (the opposite relation) through reduced fossil fuel use, leading to an estimated 2 to 5 million avoided deaths in the period up to2030. By combining both air quality and climate goals, net health benefits can be maximized.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen & Pim Dorst & Detlef P. Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Rita Dingenen & Zbigniew Klimont, 2020. "Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1519-1538, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02800-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02800-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02800-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02800-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Adriana Marcucci & Drew Shindell & Michiel Schaeffer, 2015. "How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO 2 radiative forcing?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 565-582, December.
    2. Lara Aleluia Reis & Laurent Drouet & Rita Van Dingenen & Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate Assumptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-27, October.
    3. Steven J. Smith & Shilpa Rao & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. Vuuren & Katherine V. Calvin & Page Kyle, 2016. "Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 13-24, September.
    4. David McCollum & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Peter Kolp & Arnulf Grubler & Marek Makowski & Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 2013. "Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 479-494, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steven J. Smith & Zbigniew Klimont & Laurent Drouet & Mathijs Harmsen & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. Vuuren & John P. Weyant, 2020. "The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 study on short-lived climate forcers: introduction and overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1399-1408, December.
    2. Yuan Lai, 2022. "Urban Intelligence for Carbon Neutral Cities: Creating Synergy among Data, Analytics, and Climate Actions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-14, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastian Levi & Christian Flachsland & Michael Jakob, 2020. "Political Economy Determinants of Carbon Pricing," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 128-156, May.
    2. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    3. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    4. Ottmar Edenhofer & Susanne Kadner & Christoph von Stechow & Gregor Schwerhoff & Gunnar Luderer, 2014. "Linking climate change mitigation research to sustainable development," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 30, pages 476-499, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2024. "Climate change, energy security risk, and clean energy investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Mathijs Harmsen & Oliver Fricko & Jérôme Hilaire & Detlef P. Vuuren & Laurent Drouet & Olivier Durand-Lasserve & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kimon Keramidas & Zbigniew Klimont & Gunnar Luderer & Lara Alelui, 2020. "Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1443-1461, December.
    7. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    8. Ou, Yang & Shi, Wenjing & Smith, Steven J. & Ledna, Catherine M. & West, J. Jason & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2018. "Estimating environmental co-benefits of U.S. low-carbon pathways using an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 482-493.
    9. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Nam, Kyung-Min & Waugh, Caleb J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M. & Karplus, Valerie J., 2014. "Synergy between pollution and carbon emissions control: Comparing China and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 186-201.
    11. Charlie Wilson & Céline Guivarch & Elmar Kriegler & Bas Ruijven & Detlef P. Vuuren & Volker Krey & Valeria Jana Schwanitz & Erica L. Thompson, 2021. "Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Marcel J. Dorsch & Christian Flachsland, 2017. "A Polycentric Approach to Global Climate Governance," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 17(2), pages 45-64, May.
    13. Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef P. Vuuren & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Jean Chateau & Olivier Durand-Lasserve & Laurent Drouet & Oliver Fricko & Shinichiro Fujimori & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Tatsuya Hanaoka &, 2020. "The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1409-1425, December.
    14. Walter Leal Filho & Abdul-Lateef Balogun & Dinesh Surroop & Amanda Lange Salvia & Kapil Narula & Chunlan Li & Julian David Hunt & Andrea Gatto & Ayyoob Sharifi & Haibo Feng & Stella Tsani & Hossein Az, 2022. "Realising the Potential of Renewable Energy as a Tool for Energy Security in Small Island Developing States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Getachew F. Belete & Alexey Voinov & Iñaki Arto & Kishore Dhavala & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Leila Niamir & Saeed Moghayer & Tatiana Filatova, 2019. "Exploring Low-Carbon Futures: A Web Service Approach to Linking Diverse Climate-Energy-Economy Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-24, July.
    16. Shivika Mittal & Jing-Yu Liu & Shinichiro Fujimori & Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla, 2018. "An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, August.
    17. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    18. Knopf, Brigitte & Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva, 2015. "The European renewable energy target for 2030 – An impact assessment of the electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 50-60.
    19. Ekholm, Tommi & Karvosenoja, Niko & Tissari, Jarkko & Sokka, Laura & Kupiainen, Kaarle & Sippula, Olli & Savolahti, Mikko & Jokiniemi, Jorma & Savolainen, Ilkka, 2014. "A multi-criteria analysis of climate, health and acidification impacts due to greenhouse gases and air pollution—The case of household-level heating technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 499-509.
    20. Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & József Popp & Domicián Máté & Sándor Kovács, 2022. "Energy Security and Energy Transition to Achieve Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-18, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02800-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.