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How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO 2 radiative forcing?

Author

Listed:
  • Mathijs Harmsen
  • Detlef Vuuren
  • Maarten Berg
  • Andries Hof
  • Chris Hope
  • Volker Krey
  • Jean-Francois Lamarque
  • Adriana Marcucci
  • Drew Shindell
  • Michiel Schaeffer

Abstract

This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO 2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emission pathways and compared to analyses with complex earth system models (ESMs) in terms of concentration and radiative forcing levels. In our comparison, particular attention was given to the short-lived forcers' climate effects. In general, SCMs show forcing levels within the expert model ranges. However, the more simple SCMs seem to underestimate forcing differences between baseline and mitigation scenarios because of omission of ozone, black carbon and/or indirect methane forcing effects. Above all, results also show that among IAMs there is a significant spread (0.74 W/m 2 in 2100) in non-CO 2 forcing projections for a 2.6 W/m 2 mitigation scenario, mainly due to uncertainties in the indirect effects of aerosols. This has large implications for determining optimal mitigation strategies among IAMs with regard to required CO 2 forcing targets and policy costs. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Adriana Marcucci & Drew Shindell & Michiel Schaeffer, 2015. "How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO 2 radiative forcing?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 565-582, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:4:p:565-582
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1485-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris Hope, 2013. "Critical issues for the calculation of the social cost of CO 2 : why the estimates from PAGE09 are higher than those from PAGE2002," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 531-543, April.
    2. John P. Weyant, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, and Geoff J. Blanford, 2006. "Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-32.
    3. Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Jason Lowe & Michael Mastrandrea & Malte Meinshausen & Detlef Vuuren, 2012. "The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 897-917, August.
    4. Shilpa Rao and Keywan Riahi, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change Mitigation: Long-term Scenarios for the 21st Century," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 177-200.
    5. Jean-François Lamarque & G. Kyle & Malte Meinshausen & Keywan Riahi & Steven Smith & Detlef Vuuren & Andrew Conley & Francis Vitt, 2011. "Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 191-212, November.
    6. D.P. van Vuuren, B. Eickhout, P.L. Lucas and M.G.J. den Elzen, 2006. "Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 201-234.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathijs Harmsen & Oliver Fricko & Jérôme Hilaire & Detlef P. Vuuren & Laurent Drouet & Olivier Durand-Lasserve & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kimon Keramidas & Zbigniew Klimont & Gunnar Luderer & Lara Alelui, 2020. "Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1443-1461, December.
    2. Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen & Pim Dorst & Detlef P. Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Rita Dingenen & Zbigniew Klimont, 2020. "Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1519-1538, December.
    3. Steven J. Smith & Zbigniew Klimont & Laurent Drouet & Mathijs Harmsen & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. Vuuren & John P. Weyant, 2020. "The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 study on short-lived climate forcers: introduction and overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1399-1408, December.
    4. Charlie Wilson & Céline Guivarch & Elmar Kriegler & Bas Ruijven & Detlef P. Vuuren & Volker Krey & Valeria Jana Schwanitz & Erica L. Thompson, 2021. "Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef P. Vuuren & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Jean Chateau & Olivier Durand-Lasserve & Laurent Drouet & Oliver Fricko & Shinichiro Fujimori & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Tatsuya Hanaoka &, 2020. "The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1409-1425, December.

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