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Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Steven J. Smith

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL)

  • Shilpa Rao

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Katherine V. Calvin

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL)

  • Page Kyle

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL)

Abstract

This paper compares projections over the twenty-first century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed focusing on the sectoral level. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the twenty-first century due to a combination of emission controls and technology shifts over time. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model: the response has many similarities between models for the energy transformation and transportation sectors, with more diversity in the response for the building and industrial sectors. Much of these differences can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Smith & Shilpa Rao & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. Vuuren & Katherine V. Calvin & Page Kyle, 2016. "Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 13-24, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1733-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1733-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven Smith & J. West & Page Kyle, 2011. "Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 619-627, October.
    2. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, January.
    3. Steven Rose & Richard Richels & Steve Smith & Keywan Riahi & Jessica Strefler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 511-525, April.
    4. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen & Pim Dorst & Detlef P. Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Rita Dingenen & Zbigniew Klimont, 2020. "Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1519-1538, December.
    2. Ou, Yang & Shi, Wenjing & Smith, Steven J. & Ledna, Catherine M. & West, J. Jason & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2018. "Estimating environmental co-benefits of U.S. low-carbon pathways using an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 482-493.

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