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High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers

Author

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  • Daniel F. Schmidt

    (Department of Environmental Sciences—University of Virginia)

  • Kevin M. Grise

    (Department of Environmental Sciences—University of Virginia)

  • Michael L. Pace

    (Department of Environmental Sciences—University of Virginia)

Abstract

This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over the last century, as would be expected from long-term climate change. However, we also identify modes of climate variability that significantly impact the short-term behavior of ice-off time series. In particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), and to a lesser degree the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explain a substantial fraction of the interannual variance in melt dates, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) generally do not. Furthermore, the spatial pattern of the early or late ice-off dates associated with the NAO, PNA, and ENSO matches a priori expectations due to the known surface temperature patterns associated with these oscillations. In all regions, the strongest correlation to ice-off is with one of the high-frequency modes—the NAO or PNA, suggesting that short-term weather variations play a stronger role than lower-frequency climate variability (ENSO, PDO, AMO) in driving ice-off.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel F. Schmidt & Kevin M. Grise & Michael L. Pace, 2019. "High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 517-532, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:152:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2361-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2361-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barbara Benson & John Magnuson & Olaf Jensen & Virginia Card & Glenn Hodgkins & Johanna Korhonen & David Livingstone & Kenton Stewart & Gesa Weyhenmeyer & Nick Granin, 2012. "Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 299-323, May.
    2. Sapna Sharma & John Magnuson, 2014. "Oscillatory dynamics do not mask linear trends in the timing of ice breakup for Northern Hemisphere lakes from 1855 to 2004," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 835-847, June.
    3. Sapna Sharma & John Magnuson & Gricelda Mendoza & Stephen Carpenter, 2013. "Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca. 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 857-870, June.
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