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Modelling climate change impacts on lake ice and snow demonstrates breeding habitat decline of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal

Author

Listed:
  • Juho Jakkila

    (Finnish Environment Institute)

  • Miina Auttila

    (Metsähallitus)

  • Tapio Tuukkanen

    (Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for Southeast Finland)

  • Noora Veijalainen

    (Finnish Environment Institute)

Abstract

Snowdrifts on lake ice provide vital breeding habitats for the endangered Saimaa ringed seal. In this study, a lake ice model of Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS-Ice) was developed for improved estimation of ice and snow conditions in Lake Saimaa during the pupping season of the Saimaa ringed seal. The WSFS-Ice model is based on energy balance, enabling reliable estimation of the ice cover evolution in current and future climate. In addition, a simple snowdrift model was used to simulate formation of snowdrifts, which are essential for the seals breeding success in Lake Saimaa. The model was calibrated against ice thickness, ice type and snow depth measurements. According to our results based on climate scenarios with intermediate representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), the breeding habitat of the Saimaa ringed seal is significantly deteriorating during the twenty-first century. The mean depth of the snowdrifts is projected to decrease approximately to half from the 1981–2010 to 2070–99 period and at the same time the ice-covered period is reduced by one and a half months. During the mildest winters the ice cover is projected to melt even before the pupping season has ended. The results highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and active conservation measures to enhance seal population growth, enabling it to survive in a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Juho Jakkila & Miina Auttila & Tapio Tuukkanen & Noora Veijalainen, 2024. "Modelling climate change impacts on lake ice and snow demonstrates breeding habitat decline of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(9), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03797-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03797-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kevin Blagrave & Sapna Sharma, 2023. "Projecting climate change impacts on ice phenology across Midwestern and Northeastern United States lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Saloranta, Tuomo M. & Andersen, Tom, 2007. "MyLake—A multi-year lake simulation model code suitable for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 45-60.
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