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Oscillatory dynamics do not mask linear trends in the timing of ice breakup for Northern Hemisphere lakes from 1855 to 2004

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  • Sapna Sharma
  • John Magnuson

Abstract

Our analyses partition the relative influence of progressive climate change and large-scale climate drivers that can be associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), solar sunspot cycle, and multi-decadal oscillations on lake ice breakup dates for thirteen Northern Hemisphere lakes. Oscillatory dynamics explain 26 % of the total variance in the time series compared with 15 % for linear trends, leaving 60 % unexplained and likely attributable, in part, to local weather. Significant oscillatory dynamics include frequencies in 2–3 year periods (9.4 % of the total variance), 3–6 year periods (8.2 %), 10–12 year periods (1.6 %) and various multidecadal periods (0.4–1.3 %). All 13 study lakes, although widely scattered in the Northern Hemisphere, had similar oscillatory dynamics and linear trends, emphasizing that global processes influence lake ice breakup locally. We illustrate that while quasi-periodic dynamics associated with large-scale climate drivers are important, they do not mask the clear evidence for progressive climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Sapna Sharma & John Magnuson, 2014. "Oscillatory dynamics do not mask linear trends in the timing of ice breakup for Northern Hemisphere lakes from 1855 to 2004," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 835-847, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:4:p:835-847
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1125-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barbara Benson & John Magnuson & Olaf Jensen & Virginia Card & Glenn Hodgkins & Johanna Korhonen & David Livingstone & Kenton Stewart & Gesa Weyhenmeyer & Nick Granin, 2012. "Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 299-323, May.
    2. Sapna Sharma & John Magnuson & Gricelda Mendoza & Stephen Carpenter, 2013. "Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca. 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 857-870, June.
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    1. Daniel F. Schmidt & Kevin M. Grise & Michael L. Pace, 2019. "High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 517-532, March.

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