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The spatial distribution of Republican and Democratic climate opinions at state and local scales

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Listed:
  • Matto Mildenberger

    (University of California Santa Barbara)

  • Jennifer R. Marlon

    (Yale University)

  • Peter D. Howe

    (Utah State University)

  • Anthony Leiserowitz

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Even as US partisan polarization shapes climate and energy attitudes, substantial heterogeneity in climate opinions still exists among both Republicans and Democrats. To date, our understanding of this partisan heterogeneity has been limited to analysis of national- or, less commonly, state-level opinion poll subsamples. However, the dynamics of political representation and issue commitments play out over more finely resolved state and local scales. Here we use previously validated multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) models (Howe et al., Nat Clim Chang 5(6):596–603 2015; Mildenberger et al., PLoS One 11(8):e0159774 2016) combined with a novel approach to measuring the distribution of party members to model, for the first time, the spatial distribution of partisan climate and energy opinions. We find substantial geographic variation in Republican climate opinions across states and congressional districts. While Democratic party members consistently think human-caused global warming is happening and support climate policy reforms, the intensity of their climate beliefs also varies spatially at state and local scales. These results have policy-relevant implications for the trajectory of US climate policy reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Matto Mildenberger & Jennifer R. Marlon & Peter D. Howe & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2017. "The spatial distribution of Republican and Democratic climate opinions at state and local scales," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 539-548, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2103-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2103-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter D. Howe & Matto Mildenberger & Jennifer R. Marlon & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2015. "Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 596-603, June.
    2. Sanya Carley, 2011. "The Era of State Energy Policy Innovation: A Review of Policy Instruments," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 28(3), pages 265-294, May.
    3. Jeffrey R. Lax & Justin H. Phillips, 2009. "How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in The States?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 107-121, January.
    4. Matto Mildenberger & Peter Howe & Erick Lachapelle & Leah Stokes & Jennifer Marlon & Timothy Gravelle, 2016. "The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Buttice, Matthew K. & Highton, Benjamin, 2013. "How Does Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Perform with Conventional National Surveys?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 449-467.
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    Cited by:

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