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A Potential Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for Economic Analyses of Climate Policy

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  • Delavane Diaz
  • Klaus Keller

Abstract

The Earth system may react in a nonlinear threshold response to climate forcings. Incorporating threshold responses into integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for climate policy analysis poses nontrivial challenges, for example due to methodological limitations and pervasive deep uncertainties. Here we explore a specific threshold response, a potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). We review the current scientific understanding of WAIS, identify methodological and conceptual issues, and demonstrate avenues to address some of them through a stochastic hazard IAM framework combining emulation, expert knowledge, and learning. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and research needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Delavane Diaz & Klaus Keller, 2016. "A Potential Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for Economic Analyses of Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 607-611, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:607-11
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Delavane B. Diaz, 2015. "Integrated Assessment of Climate Catastrophes with Endogenous Uncertainty: Does the Risk of Ice Sheet Collapse Justify Precautionary Mitigation?," Working Papers 2015.64, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Yongyang Cai & Kenneth L. Judd & Thomas S. Lontzek, 2013. "The Social Cost of Stochastic and Irreversible Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 18704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Diaz, Delavane B., 2015. "Integrated Assessment of Climate Catastrophes with Endogenous Uncertainty: Does the Risk of Ice Sheet Collapse Justify Precautionary Mitigation?," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 206721, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. J. L. Bamber & W. P. Aspinall, 2013. "An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 424-427, April.
    5. Derek Lemoine & Christian Traeger, 2014. "Watch Your Step: Optimal Policy in a Tipping Climate," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 137-166, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2021. "Social Cost of Carbon Under Stochastic Tipping Points," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 709-737, April.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 2018. "Global Melting" The Economics of Disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2130, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Sandra Gschnaller, 2020. "The Albedo Loss from the Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Social Cost of Carbon," ifo Working Paper Series 332, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    6. Fatouros, Nikos, 2024. "Economic Impact of Natural Disasters Under the New Normal of Climate Change: The Role of Green Technologies," MPRA Paper 120162, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2024.
    7. Simon Dietz & Felix Koninx, 2022. "Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Anthony Wiskich, 2024. "Social Costs of Methane and Carbon Dioxide in a Tipping Climate," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(5), pages 1275-1293, May.
    9. Wonjun Chang & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2017. "Catastrophic Thresholds, Bayesian Learning And The Robustness Of Climate Policy Recommendations," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-23, November.
    10. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Sandra Gschnaller, 2020. "The albedo loss from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the social cost of carbon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2201-2231, December.
    12. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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