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Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years

Author

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  • David Pollard

    (Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA)

  • Robert M. DeConto

    (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003, USA)

Abstract

When the ice sheet melted Changes in Earth's orbit are known to influence climate shifts from cold glacials to warm interglacials. How the vast West Antarctic ice sheet responds to these fluctuations is uncertain but, because its collapse could raise sea levels by about 5 metres, of great interest. Naish et al. have analysed the AND-1B ocean sediment core, extracted from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf as part of the ANDRILL drilling project, and find evidence that the ice sheet collapsed periodically during the early Pliocene (3-5 million years ago), when atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to, or slightly higher than today's. The pattern of collapse suggests an influence of approximately 40,000-year cycles in the tilt of Earth's rotational axis (obliquity). Also in this issue of Nature, in a numerical modelling study focused on the past 5 million years in Antarctica, David Pollard and Robert DeConto combine ice sheet (land-supported) and ice shelf (water-supported) modelling approaches to simulate the movement of the grounding line — the border between land and sea ice. Their results show that over the past 5 million years, the West Antarctic ice sheet transitioned between full, intermediate, and collapsed states in just a few thousand years. This means that the ice sheet is likely to disintegrate if ocean temperatures in the area rise by 5 C.

Suggested Citation

  • David Pollard & Robert M. DeConto, 2009. "Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7236), pages 329-332, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:458:y:2009:i:7236:d:10.1038_nature07809
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07809
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    Cited by:

    1. Anders Levermann & Jonathan Bamber & Sybren Drijfhout & Andrey Ganopolski & Winfried Haeberli & Neil Harris & Matthias Huss & Kirstin Krüger & Timothy Lenton & Ronald Lindsay & Dirk Notz & Peter Wadha, 2012. "Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 845-878, February.
    2. Adam D. Sproson & Yusuke Yokoyama & Yosuke Miyairi & Takahiro Aze & Rebecca L. Totten, 2022. "Holocene melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet driven by tropical Pacific warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    4. Fiona Clerc & Mark D. Behn & Brent M. Minchew, 2024. "Deglaciation-enhanced mantle CO2 fluxes at Yellowstone imply positive climate feedback," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Nicholas R. Golledge, 2020. "Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    6. Daniel P. Lowry & Holly K. Han & Nicholas R. Golledge & Natalya Gomez & Katelyn M. Johnson & Robert M. McKay, 2024. "Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.
    8. Dawei Li & Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard & Yongyun Hu, 2024. "Competing climate feedbacks of ice sheet freshwater discharge in a warming world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Jenny A. Gales & Robert M. McKay & Laura De Santis & Michele Rebesco & Jan Sverre Laberg & Amelia E Shevenell & David Harwood & R. Mark Leckie & Denise K. Kulhanek & Maxine King & Molly Patterson & Re, 2023. "Climate-controlled submarine landslides on the Antarctic continental margin," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Ilaria Crotti & Aurélien Quiquet & Amaelle Landais & Barbara Stenni & David J. Wilson & Mirko Severi & Robert Mulvaney & Frank Wilhelms & Carlo Barbante & Massimo Frezzotti, 2022. "Wilkes subglacial basin ice sheet response to Southern Ocean warming during late Pleistocene interglacials," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Michael E. Weber & Nicholas R. Golledge & Chris J. Fogwill & Chris S. M. Turney & Zoë A. Thomas, 2021. "Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Michela Biasutti & Adam Sobel & Suzana Camargo & Timothy Creyts, 2012. "Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 819-845, June.
    13. Timothy Lenton & Juan-Carlos Ciscar, 2013. "Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 585-597, April.
    14. Won Chang & Murali Haran & Patrick Applegate & David Pollard, 2016. "Calibrating an Ice Sheet Model Using High-Dimensional Binary Spatial Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(513), pages 57-72, March.

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