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Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers

Author

Listed:
  • Mesgana Seyoum Gizaw

    (University of Alberta)

  • Getu Fana Biftu

    (Golder Associates)

  • Thian Yew Gan

    (University of Alberta)

  • Semu Ayalew Moges

    (Addis Ababa University)

  • Harri Koivusalo

    (Aalto University School of Engineering)

Abstract

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale, and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971–2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 °C (3.3 °C) in 2050s (2080s), whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro, and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia’s complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Mesgana Seyoum Gizaw & Getu Fana Biftu & Thian Yew Gan & Semu Ayalew Moges & Harri Koivusalo, 2017. "Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 371-383, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:143:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2021-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2021-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    2. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    3. Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele, 2007. "Water resources and irrigation development in Ethiopia," IWMI Working Papers H040631, International Water Management Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeong-Bae Kim & Jean de Dieu Habimana & Seon-Ho Kim & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2021. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Oudah Yobom, 2020. "Climate change and variability: empirical evidence for countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 365-384, April.

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