IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v230y2012icp123-147.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Tomczak, M.T.
  • Niiranen, S.
  • Hjerne, O.
  • Blenckner, T.

Abstract

The Baltic Proper is a semi-enclosed, highly productive basin of the Baltic Sea with a low biodiversity, where only a few key species drive the system's dynamics. Recently, an ecosystem regime shift was described having pronounced changes at all trophic levels, driven by changes in fishery and climate and leading to a food–web reorganisation. An Ecopath with Ecosim Baltic Proper food–web model (BaltProWeb) was developed to simulate and better understand trophic interactions and their flows. The model contains 22 functional groups that represent the main food–web components. BaltProWeb was calibrated to long-term monitoring data (1974–2006), covering multiple trophic levels and is forced by fisheries and environmental drivers. Our model enables the quantification of the flows through the food–web from primary producers to top predators including fisheries over time. The model is able to explain 51% of the variation in biomass of multiple trophic levels and to simulate the regime shift from a cod dominated to a sprat dominated system. Results show a change from benthic to more pelagic trophic flows. Before the reorganisation macrozoobenthos was identified as an important functional group transferring energy directly from lower trophic levels to top predators. After the regime shift, the pelagic trophic flows dominated. Uncertainties and limitations of the modelling approach and results in relation to ecosystem-based management are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomczak, M.T. & Niiranen, S. & Hjerne, O. & Blenckner, T., 2012. "Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 123-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:230:y:2012:i:c:p:123-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380011006028
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marten Scheffer & Steve Carpenter & Jonathan A. Foley & Carl Folke & Brian Walker, 2001. "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6856), pages 591-596, October.
    2. Link, Jason S., 2010. "Adding rigor to ecological network models by evaluating a set of pre-balance diagnostics: A plea for PREBAL," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(12), pages 1580-1591.
    3. Sandberg, J., 2007. "Cross-ecosystem analyses of pelagic food web structure and processes in the Baltic Sea," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 243-261.
    4. Coll, Marta & Palomera, Isabel & Tudela, Sergi & Dowd, Michael, 2008. "Food-web dynamics in the South Catalan Sea ecosystem (NW Mediterranean) for 1978–2003," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 95-116.
    5. Österblom, H. & Gårdmark, A. & Bergström, L. & Müller-Karulis, B. & Folke, C. & Lindegren, M. & Casini, M. & Olsson, P. & Diekmann, R. & Blenckner, T. & Humborg, C. & Möllmann, C., 2010. "Making the ecosystem approach operational--Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1290-1299, November.
    6. Mackinson, S. & Daskalov, G. & Heymans, J.J. & Neira, S. & Arancibia, H. & Zetina-Rejón, M. & Jiang, H. & Cheng, H.Q. & Coll, M. & Arreguin-Sanchez, F. & Keeble, K. & Shannon, L., 2009. "Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 2972-2987.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barros, Mónica E. & Arriagada, Ana & Arancibia, Hugo & Neira, Sergio, 2024. "Using a time-dynamic food web model to compare predation and fishing mortality in Pleuroncodes monodon (Galatheidae: Crustaceae) and other benthic and demersal resource species off central Chile," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    2. Heymans, Johanna Jacomina & Coll, Marta & Link, Jason S. & Mackinson, Steven & Steenbeek, Jeroen & Walters, Carl & Christensen, Villy, 2016. "Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 331(C), pages 173-184.
    3. Hutniczak, Barbara, 2015. "Modeling heterogeneous fleet in an ecosystem based management context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 203-214.
    4. Søren Anker Pedersen & Hans Lassen & Hans Frost, 2015. "The marine ecosystem services approach in a fisheries management perspective," IFRO Working Paper 2015/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    5. Maciej T Tomczak & Johanna J Heymans & Johanna Yletyinen & Susa Niiranen & Saskia A Otto & Thorsten Blenckner, 2013. "Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-11, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heymans, Johanna Jacomina & Coll, Marta & Link, Jason S. & Mackinson, Steven & Steenbeek, Jeroen & Walters, Carl & Christensen, Villy, 2016. "Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 331(C), pages 173-184.
    2. Coll, Marta & Steenbeek, Jeroen & Sole, Jordi & Palomera, Isabel & Christensen, Villy, 2016. "Modelling the cumulative spatial–temporal effects of environmental drivers and fishing in a NW Mediterranean marine ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 331(C), pages 100-114.
    3. Nuttall, M.A. & Jordaan, A. & Cerrato, R.M. & Frisk, M.G., 2011. "Identifying 120 years of decline in ecosystem structure and maturity of Great South Bay, New York using the Ecopath modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3335-3345.
    4. Lercari, Diego & Defeo, Omar & Ortega, Leonardo & Orlando, Luis & Gianelli, Ignacio & Celentano, Eleonora, 2018. "Long-term structural and functional changes driven by climate variability and fishery regimes in a sandy beach ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 41-51.
    5. Coll, M. & Pennino, M. Grazia & Steenbeek, J. & Sole, J. & Bellido, J.M., 2019. "Predicting marine species distributions: Complementarity of food-web and Bayesian hierarchical modelling approaches," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 86-101.
    6. Zetina-Rejón, Manuel J. & Cabrera-Neri, Erika & López-Ibarra, Gladis A. & Arcos-Huitrón, N. Enrique & Christensen, Villy, 2015. "Trophic modeling of the continental shelf ecosystem outside of Tabasco, Mexico: A network and modularity analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 314-324.
    7. Ian Hodge & William M. Adams, 2016. "Short-Term Projects versus Adaptive Governance: Conflicting Demands in the Management of Ecological Restoration," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-17, November.
    8. Milessi, Andrés C. & Danilo, Calliari & Laura, Rodríguez-Graña & Daniel, Conde & Javier, Sellanes & Rodríguez-Gallego, Lorena, 2010. "Trophic mass-balance model of a subtropical coastal lagoon, including a comparison with a stable isotope analysis of the food-web," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(24), pages 2859-2869.
    9. Jenerette, G. Darrel & Lal, Rattan, 2007. "Modeled carbon sequestration variation in a linked erosion–deposition system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 207-216.
    10. Rustici, M. & Ceccherelli, G. & Piazzi, L., 2017. "Predator exploitation and sea urchin bistability: Consequence on benthic alternative states," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 344(C), pages 1-5.
    11. Rodrigues, João & Domingos, Tiago & Conceição, Pedro & Belbute, José, 2005. "Constraints on dematerialisation and allocation of natural capital along a sustainable growth path," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 382-396, September.
    12. Xu Luo & Hong S. He & Yu Liang & Jacob S. Fraser & Jialin Li, 2018. "Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change through Harvesting and Planting in Boreal Forests of Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    13. Carlos Sanz-Lazaro, 2019. "A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, October.
    14. Teh, Su Yean & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Sternberg, Leonel da Silveira Lobo & Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. & Smith, Thomas J. & Koh, Hock-Lye, 2008. "A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 245-256.
    15. Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette & Mzoughi, Naoufel, 2020. "Moral judgment of environmental harm caused by a single versus multiple wrongdoers: A survey experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Kong, Xiang-Zhen & Jørgensen, Sven Erik & He, Wei & Qin, Ning & Xu, Fu-Liu, 2013. "Predicting the restoration effects by a structural dynamic approach in Lake Chaohu, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 73-85.
    17. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    18. Sonia Kéfi & Vishwesha Guttal & William A Brock & Stephen R Carpenter & Aaron M Ellison & Valerie N Livina & David A Seekell & Marten Scheffer & Egbert H van Nes & Vasilis Dakos, 2014. "Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, March.
    19. Booth, Shawn & Walters, William J & Steenbeek, Jeroen & Christensen, Villy & Charmasson, Sabine, 2020. "An Ecopath with Ecosim model for the Pacific coast of eastern Japan: Describing the marine environment and its fisheries prior to the Great East Japan earthquake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 428(C).
    20. Monika Winn & Manfred Kirchgeorg & Andrew Griffiths & Martina K. Linnenluecke & Elmar Günther, 2011. "Impacts from climate change on organizations: a conceptual foundation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 157-173, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:230:y:2012:i:c:p:123-147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.