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The Paris Agreement and next steps in limiting global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Steven K. Rose

    (Electric Power Research Institute)

  • Richard Richels

    (Electric Power Research Institute)

  • Geoffrey Blanford

    (Electric Power Research Institute)

  • Thomas Rutherford

    (University of Wisconsin—Madison)

Abstract

The Paris Climate Agreement sets out an aggressive goal of limiting global average warming to well below 2 °C. As a first step, virtually all countries have put forth greenhouse gas emission reduction pledges in the form of nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, for the 2030 timeframe. Our analysis looks beyond the NDCs to explore potential post-2030 regional emissions reduction participation and ambition. For each scenario, we examine the implications for global emissions and long-term temperature. We then evaluate the regional consequences for energy systems and ensuing costs. We conclude by reflecting on the additional global abatement costs of tightening temperature goals. Overall, this study provides a multidimensional characterization of the scale of regional effort supporting climate outcomes, details important to decision-makers as they consider mid-century emissions targets, and long-run climate objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven K. Rose & Richard Richels & Geoffrey Blanford & Thomas Rutherford, 2017. "The Paris Agreement and next steps in limiting global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 255-270, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1935-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1935-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pizer, William, 1997. "Prices vs. Quantities Revisited: The Case of Climate Change," RFF Working Paper Series dp-98-02, Resources for the Future.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Xunzhang & Chen, Wenying & Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Lining & Dai, Jiaquan & Zhang, Qi & Zheng, Xinzhu & Wang, Hailin, 2020. "Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Yi-Ming Wei & Rong Han & Qiao-Mei Liang & Bi-Ying Yu & Yun-Fei Yao & Mei-Mei Xue & Kun Zhang & Li-Jing Liu & Juan Peng & Pu Yang & Zhi-Fu Mi & Yun-Fei Du & Ce Wang & Jun-Jie Chang & Qian-Ru Yang & Zil, 2018. "An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 585-618, June.
    3. Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2017. "Paris after Trump: An Inconvenient Insight," CESifo Working Paper Series 6531, CESifo.
    4. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 549-557.
    5. Felix Ekardt & Jutta Wieding & Anika Zorn, 2018. "Paris Agreement, Precautionary Principle and Human Rights: Zero Emissions in Two Decades?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, August.
    6. Clément Bonnet & Samuel Carcanague & Emmanuel Hache & Gondia Sokhna Seck & Marine Simoën, 2018. "The Nexus between Climate Negotiations and Low-Carbon Innovation : A Geopolitics of Renewable Energy Patents," Working Papers hal-03188847, HAL.
    7. Clare Hanmer & Charlie Wilson & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2022. "Translating Global Integrated Assessment Model Output into Lifestyle Change Pathways at the Country and Household Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-31, February.
    8. Muhammad Faisal Shehzad & Mainak Dan & Valerio Mariani & Seshadhri Srinivasan & Davide Liuzza & Carmine Mongiello & Roberto Saraceno & Luigi Glielmo, 2021. "A Heuristic Algorithm for Combined Heat and Power System Operation Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas, 2017. "Paris After Trump: An Inconvenient Insight," Conference papers 332843, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. John E. T. Bistline & James Merrick & Victor Niemeyer, 2020. "Estimating Power Sector Leakage Risks and Provincial Impacts of Canadian Carbon Pricing," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(1), pages 91-118, May.
    11. Abdulwahab Alqahtani & Xupeng He & Bicheng Yan & Hussein Hoteit, 2023. "Uncertainty Analysis of CO 2 Storage in Deep Saline Aquifers Using Machine Learning and Bayesian Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Jose M. Garrido-Perez & David Barriopedro & Ricardo García-Herrera & Carlos Ordóñez, 2021. "Impact of climate change on Spanish electricity demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-18, April.

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