IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v141y2017i4d10.1007_s10584-017-1911-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources

Author

Listed:
  • Akemi Tanaka

    (National Agriculture and Food Research Organization)

  • Kiyoshi Takahashi

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Hideo Shiogama

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Naota Hanasaki

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Yoshimitsu Masaki

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Akihiko Ito

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Hibiki Noda

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Yasuaki Hijioka

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Seita Emori

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Abstract

We assessed whether the impacts of various increases in global mean temperature from preindustrial levels (∆GMT) on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources could be approximated by linear scaling of the impacts of ∆GMT = 2 °C at global and large regional scales. Impacts on net primary production, CO2 emissions from biomass burning, soil erosion, and surface runoff calculated by impact model simulations driven by multiple climate scenarios were assessed for a ∆GMT range of 1.5–4 °C. The results showed that the linear scaling was tolerable for net primary production, biomass burning, and surface runoff for a global average. However, for regional averages, the linear scaling was unacceptable for net primary production and biomass burning as well as for soil erosion at around 3 °C in numerous regions around the world. The linear scaling was judged to be tolerable for surface runoff in most regions where the impacts of 2 °C were statistically significant, but there were large uncertainties in future changes in surface runoff in many regions. Exploring the applicability of linear scaling could help simplify and streamline climate-change impact assessments at various ∆GMTs. Our approach leaves room for refinement, and further investigation will be worthwhile.

Suggested Citation

  • Akemi Tanaka & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Hideo Shiogama & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshimitsu Masaki & Akihiko Ito & Hibiki Noda & Yasuaki Hijioka & Seita Emori, 2017. "On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 775-782, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1911-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    3. Sonia I. Seneviratne & Markus G. Donat & Andy J. Pitman & Reto Knutti & Robert L. Wilby, 2016. "Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7587), pages 477-483, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miranda J. Fix & Daniel Cooley & Stephan R. Sain & Claudia Tebaldi, 2018. "A comparison of U.S. precipitation extremes under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 with an application of pattern scaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 335-347, February.
    2. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    3. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Claudia Tebaldi & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 349-361, February.
    5. Yangyang Xu & Lei Lin, 2017. "Pattern scaling based projections for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration: sensitivity to composition of GHGs and aerosols forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 635-647, February.
    6. Gaupp, Franziska & Hall, Jim & Mitchell, Dann & Dadson, Simon, 2019. "Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 34-45.
    7. Guilong Li & Xuebin Zhang & Alex J. Cannon & Trevor Murdock & Steven Sobie & Francis Zwiers & Kevin Anderson & Budong Qian, 2018. "Indices of Canada’s future climate for general and agricultural adaptation applications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 249-263, May.
    8. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    9. Andrew Jones & Katherine Calvin & William Collins & James Edmonds, 2015. "Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 691-703, August.
    10. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    12. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    13. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    15. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    18. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    19. Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Waisman, Henri & Guivarch, Céline & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Mitigation costs in second-best economies: time profile of emission reductions and sequencing of accompanying measures," Conference papers 332206, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1911-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.