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Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation

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  • Timothy J. Osborn

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Craig J. Wallace

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Ian C. Harris

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Thomas M. Melvin

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1509-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9
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    Cited by:

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    5. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    6. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & A. J. Challinor & T. J. Osborn, 2019. "Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 377-391, August.
    7. Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Craig Wallace & Rhosanna Jenkins & Timothy J. Osborn & D. P. Vuuren, 2022. "Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-16, September.

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