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Perceptions of recent rainfall changes in Niger: a comparison between climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive households

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  • Frédéric Kosmowski

    (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)

  • Antoine Leblois

    (INRA, Laboratoire d’Économie Forestière)

  • Benjamin Sultan

    (Sorbonne Universités)

Abstract

Understanding public perceptions of changes in local weather patterns is fundamental to both climate science and policy, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where adaptation will be crucial to reduce the projected impacts of climate change. In this study, a nationally-representative sample of households in Niger is used to document how perceptions of 2007–2011 rainfall changes vary across households depending on their socio-economic characteristics and their location within the latitudinal rainfall gradient of the country. We further characterize the complex relationship between perceived rainfall trends and rainfall data derived from satellite data. We found that over the last five years, most people perceive less rainfall (76 %), worse distribution of rainfall in the year (78 %), more frequent droughts (83 %) and a rainy season delayed (71 %) and also finishing earlier (80 %). These perceptions are consistent with an observed worsening of rainfall conditions as seen from satellite data. Our results demonstrate that smallholders, commercial farmers, pastoralists and sedentary agro-pastoralists living in rural dry areas have a higher level of awareness of local changes than other respondents. Indeed, perceptions of these climate-sensitive households are more consensual and more closely related to observed local changes. We found that climate-sensitive households are able to detect very accurately changes in the beginning of the rainy season and to a lesser extent changes in rainfall distribution and drought frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Kosmowski & Antoine Leblois & Benjamin Sultan, 2016. "Perceptions of recent rainfall changes in Niger: a comparison between climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive households," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 227-241, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1562-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1562-4
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    Cited by:

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    2. Antoine Leblois, 2021. "Mitigating the impact of bad rainy seasons in poor agricultural regions to tackle deforestation," Post-Print hal-03111007, HAL.
    3. Philippe Delacote & Julia Girard & Antoine Leblois, 2019. "Agricultural households' adaptation to weather shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: What implications for land-use change and deforestation," Working Papers 1902, Chaire Economie du climat.
    4. Marcela Pimid & Mohammad Rusdi Mohd Nasir & Joanna Scian & A. Ghafar Ahmad & Aini Hasanah Abdul Mutalib & Jimli Perijin, 2022. "Indigenous Kinabatangan Perspectives on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations: Factors Influencing Their Support and Participation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Florence De Longueville & Pierre Ozer & François Gemenne & Sabine Henry & Ole Mertz & Jonas Ø. Nielsen, 2020. "Comparing climate change perceptions and meteorological data in rural West Africa to improve the understanding of household decisions to migrate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 123-141, May.
    6. András Darabant & Birgit Habermann & Kibruyesfa Sisay & Christopher Thurnher & Yonas Worku & Selamawit Damtew & Mara Lindtner & Leisa Burrell & Abrham Abiyu, 2020. "Farmers’ perceptions and matching climate records jointly explain adaptation responses in four communities around Lake Tana, Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 481-497, November.
    7. Emileva, Begaiym & Kuhn, Lena & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Glauben, Thomas, 2023. "The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on climate change perception accuracy: Cross-country evidence from Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 41, pages 1-1.
    8. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin, 2020. "Do people accurately report droughts? Comparison of instrument-measured and national survey data in Kenya," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1143-1160, October.
    9. Rahman, H.M. Tuihedur & Mia, Md. Ekhlas & Ford, James D. & Robinson, Brian E. & Hickey, Gordon M., 2018. "Livelihood exposure to climatic stresses in the north-eastern floodplains of Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 199-214.
    10. Kouassi Jean-Luc & Wandan Narcisse & Mbow Cheikh, 2022. "Observed climate trends, perceived impacts and community adaptation practices in Côte d’Ivoire," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 10(3), pages 43-58, September.
    11. Uttam Babu Shrestha & Asheshwor Man Shrestha & Suman Aryal & Sujata Shrestha & Madhu Sudan Gautam & Hemant Ojha, 2019. "Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people’s perceptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 315-334, June.
    12. Pauline Castaing, 2020. "Joint liability and adaptation to climate change: evidence from Burkinabe cooperatives," Post-Print hal-02942129, HAL.
    13. Marthe Montcho & Elie Antoine Padonou & Marlise Montcho & Meshack Nzesei Mutua & Brice Sinsin, 2022. "Perception and adaptation strategies of dairy farmers towards climate variability and change in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Jonathan Salerno & Jeremy E. Diem & Bronwen L. Konecky & Joel Hartter, 2019. "Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 123-139, March.

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