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Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Salerno

    (Colorado State University)

  • Jeremy E. Diem

    (Georgia State University)

  • Bronwen L. Konecky

    (Washington University Campus)

  • Joel Hartter

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

Abstract

Smallholder farmers and livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa are on the frontlines of climate variability and change. Yet, in many regions, a paucity of weather and climate data has prevented rigorous assessment of recent climate trends and their causes, thereby limiting the effectiveness of forecasts and other services for climate adaptation. In rainfed systems, farmer perceptions of changing rainfall and weather patterns are important precursors for annual cropping decisions. Here, we propose that combining such farmer perceptions of trends in seasonal rainfall with satellite-based rainfall estimates and climate station data can reduce uncertainties regarding regional climatic trends. In western Uganda, a rural and climatically complex transition zone between eastern and central equatorial Africa, data from 980 smallholder households suggest distinct changes in seasonal bimodal rainfall over recent decades, specifically wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. Data from three satellite-based rainfall products beginning in 1983 largely corroborate respondent perceptions over the last 10–20 years, particularly in the southernmost sites near Queen Elizabeth National Park. In addition, combining all three information sources suggests an increasing trend in annual rainfall, most prominently in the north near Murchison Falls National Park over the past two decades; this runs counter to recent research asserting the presence of a drying trend in the region. Our study is unique in evaluating and cross-validating these multiple data sources to identify climatic change affecting people in a poorly understood region, while providing insights into regional-scale climate controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Salerno & Jeremy E. Diem & Bronwen L. Konecky & Joel Hartter, 2019. "Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 123-139, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:153:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02370-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02370-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aline Nkurunziza & Dorine Intwarinkase Mutaganzwa & Willy Marcel Ndayitwayeko & Jacques Nkengurutse & Beth A. Kaplin & Irene Teixidor Toneu & Noelia Zafra-Calvo & Aida Cuni-Sanchez, 2023. "Local Observations of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses: A Case Study in the Mountain Region of Burundi-Rwanda," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Kaiza R. Kaganzi & Aida Cuni-Sanchez & Fatuma Mcharazo & Emanuel H. Martin & Robert A. Marchant & Jessica P. R. Thorn, 2021. "Local Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses from Two Mountain Regions in Tanzania," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Rodriguez Kakule Amani & Bernard Riera & Gerard Imani & Rodrigue Batumike & Noelia Zafra-Calvo & Aida Cuni-Sanchez, 2022. "Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptations among Smallholder Farmers in the Mountains of Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Alistair Munro, 2020. "Using experimental manipulation of questionnaire design and a Kenyan panel to test for the reliability of reported perceptions of climate change and adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1081-1105, October.
    5. Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu & Joris Van Acker & Hans Van de Vyver & Nils Bourland & José Mbifo Ndiapo & Théophile Besango Likwela & Michel Lokonda Wa Kipifo & Amand Mbuya Kankolongo & Jan Van den Bulcke &, 2023. "Ground-based climate data show evidence of warming and intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle during the 1960–2020 period in Yangambi, central Congo Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-28, October.

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