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The influence of weather extremes on the spatial correlation of corn yields

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  • Jesse Tack
  • Matthew Holt

Abstract

Annual production shocks at the farm-level are driven by year-to-year weather variability. While identifying drivers of these shocks is important and well-researched, little attention has been paid to the extent to which these shocks aggregate up to the regional or national level. Here, we provide a method for simultaneously modeling the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of crop yields in the presence of evolving technology. Our approach allows one to condition spatial correlations on variables of interest—such as weather—in a straightforward manner. An application to state-level Iowa and Illinois corn yields provides evidence that spatial correlations roughly double in both good and bad weather years relative to normal years. Furthermore, we consider several functional forms for conditioning spatial correlations on weather and find that less flexible relationships generate misleading results as they vastly underestimate the degree of correlation in bad weather years. These findings have important implications for the climate change, food price volatility, crop insurance, and yield modeling literatures. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Jesse Tack & Matthew Holt, 2016. "The influence of weather extremes on the spatial correlation of corn yields," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 299-309, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:1:p:299-309
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1538-4
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    Cited by:

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    2. Suh, Dong Hee, 2017. "A Spatial Analysis on Corn Production: Implication for Ethanol Sustainability," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258198, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. A Ford Ramsey, 2020. "Probability Distributions of Crop Yields: A Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 220-239, January.
    4. Magdalena Cornejo & Nicolás Merener & Ezequiel Merovich, 2024. "Extreme Dry Spells and Larger Storms in the U.S. Midwest Raise Crop Prices," Working Papers 303, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Jesse Tack & Keith Coble & Barry Barnett, 2018. "Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance program," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 635-647, September.

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