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Climate change influences on agricultural research productivity

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  • Xavier Villavicencio
  • Bruce McCarl
  • Ximing Wu
  • Wallace Huffman

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of climate change on US returns to research investments on agricultural productivity. We examine this using a historical data set in a panel time-series econometric model of state agricultural productivity. The fitted model allows derivation of the rate of return to research investments and the effects of climate change thereon. We find climate change is altering the rate of return to public agricultural research in a spatially heterogeneous manner. Increases in precipitation raise returns to research, while the impact of higher temperatures varies by region, are negative in Southern areas, particularly the Southern Plains, and positive in northern areas. We simulate the impact of projected climate change and find cases where agricultural productivity is reduced, for example in the Southern Plains. Finally, we consider the amount of research investment that is needed to adapt to overcome the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. Under the 2100 scenario, a 7–17 % increase in total US research investment is needed to adapt, but effects by region differ greatly—some requiring little changes and the Southern Plain requiring an increase as high as 57 %. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Villavicencio & Bruce McCarl & Ximing Wu & Wallace Huffman, 2013. "Climate change influences on agricultural research productivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 815-824, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:815-824
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0768-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wallace E. Huffman & Richard E. Just, 1994. "Funding, Structure, and Management of Public Agricultural Research in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(4), pages 744-759.
    2. Pardey, Philip G. & James, Jennifer S. & Alston, Julian M. & Wood, Stanley & Koo, Bonwoo & Binenbaum, Eran & Hurley, Terrance M. & Glewwe, Paul & Mayer, Jorge & Jones, Richard & De Groote, Hugo & Kana, 2007. "Science, Technology and Skills," Reports 136256, University of Minnesota, International Science and Technology Practice and Policy.
    3. Wallace E. Huffman & Robert E. Evenson, 2006. "Do Formula or Competitive Grant Funds Have Greater Impacts on State Agricultural Productivity?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 783-798.
    4. Huffman, Wallace E. & Evenson, Robert E., 1993. "Science for Agriculture: A Long Term Perspective," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10997, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    6. Evenson, Robert E., 2001. "Economic impacts of agricultural research and extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 573-628, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Cao & Zhixiong Fan & Weiqiang Chen & Zhijian Cao & Anyin Jiang, 2024. "Climate Change, Biased Technological Advances and Agricultural TFP: Empirical Evidence from China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    3. Hai Li & Hui Liu, 2023. "Climate Change, Farm Irrigation Facilities, and Agriculture Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Zhangqi Zhong & Yiqin Hu & Lei Jiang, 2019. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Based on Spatial Panel Data Model: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Jesse B. Tack & Matthew T. Holt, 2016. "The influence of weather extremes on the spatial correlation of corn yields," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 299-309, January.
    6. Rahman, Sanzidur & Anik, Asif Reza, 2020. "Productivity and efficiency impact of climate change and agroecology on Bangladesh agriculture," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Michee Arnold Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & Carlos E. Ludena, 2017. "Agricultural productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and climatic effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 445-460, August.
    8. Bruce A McCarl & Thomas W Hertel, 2018. "Climate Change as an Agricultural Economics Research Topic," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 60-78.
    9. Barnabé Walheer, 2024. "Agro-Climatic Environment Heterogeneity and Productivity Convergence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(4), pages 1001-1037, December.
    10. Jason P. H. Jones & Zidong M. Wang & Bruce A. McCarl & Minglu Wang, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and the US Ethanol Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Cynthia A. Bartel & Keri L. Jacobs & Kenneth J. Moore & D. Raj Raman, 2024. "Anticipatory Technoeconomic Evaluation of Kentucky Bluegrass-Based Perennial Groundcover Implementations in Large-Scale Midwestern US Corn Production Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-16, August.

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