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Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change

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  • Kevin Trenberth

Abstract

The atmospheric and ocean environment has changed from human activities in ways that affect storms and extreme climate events. The main way climate change is perceived is through changes in extremes because those are outside the bounds of previous weather. The average anthropogenic climate change effect is not negligible, but nor is it large, although a small shift in the mean can lead to very large percentage changes in extremes. Anthropogenic global warming inherently has decadal time scales and can be readily masked by natural variability on short time scales. To the extent that interactions are linear, even places that feature below normal temperatures are still warmer than they otherwise would be. It is when natural variability and climate change develop in the same direction that records get broken. For instance, the rapid transition from El Niño prior to May 2010 to La Niña by July 2010 along with global warming contributed to the record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans and in close proximity to places where record flooding subsequently occurred. A commentary is provided on recent climate extremes. The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be. Copyright The Author(s) 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Trenberth, 2012. "Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 283-290, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:283-290
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Seung-Ki Min & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2011. "Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 378-381, February.
    2. Myles Allen, 2003. "Liability for climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6926), pages 891-892, February.
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    2. Michael E. Mann & Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Naomi Oreskes, 2017. "Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 131-142, September.
    3. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    4. Yongdeng Lei & Jing’ai Wang, 2014. "A preliminary discussion on the opportunities and challenges of linking climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1587-1597, April.
    5. Angela Rosa & Angela Santangelo & Simona Tondelli, 2021. "Investigating the Integration of Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management into Urban Planning Tools. The Ravenna Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Lee, Sangjun & Zhao, Jinhua, 2021. "Adaptation to climate change: Extreme events versus gradual changes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Markku Rummukainen, 2013. "Climate change: changing means and changing extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(1), pages 3-13, November.
    8. Allen Thompson & Friederike Otto, 2015. "Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 439-451, December.
    9. Gholamreza Roshan & Stefan W. Grab & Mohammad Saeed Najafi, 2020. "The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049) thermal stress in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 365-399, May.
    10. Tserennadmid Nadia Mijiddorj & Justine Shanti Alexander & Gustaf Samelius & Charudutt Mishra & Bazartseren Boldgiv, 2020. "Traditional livelihoods under a changing climate: herder perceptions of climate change and its consequences in South Gobi, Mongolia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1065-1079, October.
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    12. Stephanie E. Austin & James D. Ford & Lea Berrang-Ford & Malcolm Araos & Stephen Parker & Manon D. Fleury, 2015. "Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, January.
    13. Liu, Qiang & Zhao, Zhongwei & Liu, Yiran & He, Yao, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility, economic performance and environment: Evaluating the role of oil rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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