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An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin

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  • Charles Fant
  • Yohannes Gebretsadik
  • Alyssa McCluskey
  • Kenneth Strzepek

Abstract

Many residents of the Zambezi River Valley are dependent on water-related resources. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may cause a significant change to the climate in the Zambezi Basin in the future, but there is much uncertainty about the future climate state. This situation leaves policy makers at a state of urgency to prepare for these changes as well as reduce the impacts of the changes through GHG mitigation strategies. First and foremost, we must better understand the economic sectors most likely impacted and the magnitude of those impacts, given the inherent uncertainty. In this study, we present a suite of models that assess the effects of climate change on water resources for four countries in the Zambezi basin: Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We use information from a large ensemble (6800) of climate scenarios for two GHG emission policies which represent a distribution of impacts on water-related sectors, considering emissions uncertainty, climate sensitivity uncertainty, and regional climate uncertainty. Two GHG mitigation scenarios are used to understand the effect of global emissions reduction on the River Basin system out to 2050. Under both climate polices, the majority of the basin will likely be drier, except for a portion in the north around Malawi and northern Zambia. Three Key Performance Indicators are used—flood occurrence, unmet irrigation demand, and hydropower generation—to understand the impact channels of climate change effects on the four countries. We find that floods are likely to be worse in Mozambique, irrigation demands are likely to be unmet in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and hydropower generation is likely to be reduced in Zambia. We also find that the range of possible impacts is much larger under an unconstrained GHG emissions case than under a strict mitigation strategy, suggesting that GHG mitigation would reduce uncertainties about the future climate state, reducing the risks of extreme changes as compared to the unconstrained emissions case. Copyright UNU-WIDER 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Fant & Yohannes Gebretsadik & Alyssa McCluskey & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 35-48, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:130:y:2015:i:1:p:35-48
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1314-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Channing Arndt & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow & Charles Fant & Len Tiu Wright, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. World Bank, 2010. "The Zambezi River Basin : A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis - Summary Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 2958, The World Bank Group.
    4. Wahaj, Robina & Maraux, Florent & Munoz, Giovanni, 2007. "Actual crop water use in project countries : a synthesis at the regional level," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4288, The World Bank.
    5. Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov & John Reilly & Chris Forest & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Chien Wang & David Kicklighter & Marcus Sarofim & Jerry Melillo & Ronald Prinn & Henry Jacoby, 2012. "Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 569-583, June.
    6. Paul Collier & Gordon Conway & Tony Venables, 2008. "Climate change and Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(2), pages 337-353, Summer.
    7. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. World Bank, 2010. "The Zambezi River Basin : A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis - State of the Basin," World Bank Publications - Reports 2961, The World Bank Group.
    9. World Bank, 2010. "The Zambezi River Basin : A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis - Basin Development Scenarios," World Bank Publications - Reports 2959, The World Bank Group.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Schlosser & Andrei Sokolov & Ken Strzepek & Tim Thomas & Xiang Gao & Channing Arndt, 2021. "The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-25, October.
    2. Hambulo Ngoma & Patrick Lupiya & Mulako Kabisa & Faaiqa Hartley, 2021. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and household welfare in Zambia: an economy-wide analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2019. "Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 335-349, June.
    4. McPherson, Madeleine & Ismail, Malik & Hoornweg, Daniel & Metcalfe, Murray, 2018. "Planning for variable renewable energy and electric vehicle integration under varying degrees of decentralization: A case study in Lusaka, Zambia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 332-346.
    5. Aghapour Sabbaghi, Mohammad & Nazari, Mohammadreza & Araghinejad, Shahab & Soufizadeh, Saeid, 2020. "Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

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