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Projecting River Basin Resilience in the Zambezi River Basin through Global Analyses and Basin Realities

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  • Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman

    (Oregon State University)

Abstract

Projecting future hotspots of hydropolitical tension in international river basins may help countries in preventing hydropolitical conflict. The Zambezi River Basin has been identified as a basin at risk of future hydropolitical conflict. This paper analyzes the basin’s hydropolitical resilience using two approaches: i) a global analysis of factors that indicate change and institutional capacity, and ii) an in-depth examination of its hydropolitical history and present-day status using interviews with basin stakeholders, academics, NGOs, and policy makers. Results of the global analysis indicate that the Zambezi River Basin has comparatively higher institutional capacity, lower to medium rates of new dam development, lower human development and security values, lower water scarcity, yet higher projected water variability. Examining the basin’s hydropolitical history shows that these results are contextually dependent. This paper argues that while global hydropolitical resilience analyses are valid for indicating areas of possible tension over shared water resources, tracing basins’ hydropolitical history puts the global results into context that is crucial to identify specific aspects of the basin that may push the basin into conflict.

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  • Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman, 2016. "Projecting River Basin Resilience in the Zambezi River Basin through Global Analyses and Basin Realities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1987-2003, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1264-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1264-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Danuta Grosbois & Ryan Plummer, 2015. "Problematizing Water Vulnerability Indices at a Local Level: a Critical Review and Proposed Solution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5015-5035, November.
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    4. World Bank, 2010. "The Zambezi River Basin : A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis - State of the Basin," World Bank Publications - Reports 2961, The World Bank Group.
    5. Lucia De Stefano & James Duncan & Shlomi Dinar & Kerstin Stahl & Kenneth M Strzepek & Aaron T Wolf, 2012. "Climate change and the institutional resilience of international river basins," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 193-209, January.
    6. World Bank, 2010. "The Zambezi River Basin : A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis - Summary Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 2958, The World Bank Group.
    7. Unesco Unesco, 2015. "Water for a Sustainable World," Working Papers id:6657, eSocialSciences.
    8. World Bank, 2010. "The Zambezi River Basin : A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis - Basin Development Scenarios," World Bank Publications - Reports 2959, The World Bank Group.
    9. T. Cohen Liechti & J. Matos & J.-L. Boillat & A. Schleiss, 2015. "Influence of Hydropower Development on Flow Regime in the Zambezi River Basin for Different Scenarios of Environmental Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 731-747, February.
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