IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v129y2015i1p323-335.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field

Author

Listed:
  • Zhaozhi Wang
  • Zhiming Qi
  • Lulin Xue
  • Melissa Bukovsky
  • Matthew Helmers

Abstract

The effect of climate change on crop production and nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) pollution from subsurface drained fields is of a great concern. Using the calibrated and validated RZWQM2 (coupled with CERES-Maize and CROPGRO in DSSAT), the potential effects of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (CO 2 ) on tile drainage volume, NO 3 -N losses, and crop production were assessed integrally for the first time for a corn-soybean rotation cropping system near Gilmore City, Iowa. RZWQM2 simulated results under 20-year observed historical weather data (1990–2009) and ambient CO 2 were compared to those under 20-year projected future meteorological data (2045–2064) and elevated CO 2 , with all management practices unchanged. The results showed that, under the future climate, tile drainage, NO 3 -N loss and flow-weighted average NO 3 -N concentration (FWANC) increased by 4.2 cm year −1 (+14.5 %), 11.6 kg N ha −1 year −1 (+33.7 %) and 2.0 mg L −1 (+16.4 %), respectively. Yields increased by 875 kg ha −1 (+28.0 %) for soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] but decreased by 1380 kg ha −1 (−14.7 %) for corn (Zea mays L.). The yield of the C 3 soybean increased mostly due to CO 2 enrichment but increased temperature had negligible effect. However, the yield of C 4 corn decreased largely because of fewer days to physiological maturity due to increased temperature and limited benefit of elevated CO 2 to corn yield under subhumid climate. Relative humidity, short wave radiation and wind speed had small or negligible impacts on FWANC or grain yields. With the predicted trend, this study suggests that to mitigate NO 3 -N pollution from subsurface drained corn-soybean field in Iowa is a more challenging task in the future without changing current management practices. This study also demonstrates the advantage of an agricultural system model in assessing climate change impacts on water quality and crop production. Further investigation on management practice adaptation is needed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaozhi Wang & Zhiming Qi & Lulin Xue & Melissa Bukovsky & Matthew Helmers, 2015. "Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 323-335, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:323-335
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1342-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1342-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1342-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ma, L. & Hoogenboom, G. & Ahuja, L.R. & Ascough II, J.C. & Saseendran, S.A., 2006. "Evaluation of the RZWQM-CERES-Maize hybrid model for maize production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 274-295, March.
    2. Jonghan Ko & Lajpat Ahuja & S. Saseendran & Timothy Green & Liwang Ma & David Nielsen & Charles Walthall, 2012. "Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the Central Great Plains, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 445-472, March.
    3. Islam, Adlul & Ahuja, Lajpat R. & Garcia, Luis A. & Ma, Liwang & Saseendran, Anapalli S. & Trout, Thomas J., 2012. "Modeling the impacts of climate change on irrigated corn production in the Central Great Plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 94-108.
    4. Ma, Q. L. & Hook, J. E. & Wauchope, R. D., 1999. "Evapotranspiration predictions: a comparison among GLEAMS, Opus, PRZM-2, and RZWQM models in a humid and thermic climate," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 41-55, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    2. Liu, Fei & Zhu, Qing & Zhou, Zhiwen & Liao, Kaihua & Lai, Xiaoming, 2022. "Soil nitrate leaching of tea plantation and its responses to seasonal drought and wetness scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    3. Wang, Zhaozhi & Zhang, T.Q. & Tan, C.S. & Xue, Lulin & Bukovsky, Melissa & Qi, Z.M., 2021. "Modeling impacts of climate change on crop yield and phosphorus loss in a subsurface drained field of Lake Erie region, Canada," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Robert Malone & Jurgen Garbrecht & Phillip Busteed & Jerry Hatfield & Dennis Todey & Jade Gerlitz & Quanxiao Fang & Matthew Sima & Anna Radke & Liwang Ma & Zhiming Qi & Huaiqing Wu & Dan Jaynes & Thom, 2020. "Drainage N Loads Under Climate Change with Winter Rye Cover Crop in a Northern Mississippi River Basin Corn-Soybean Rotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Basche, Andrea D. & Kaspar, Thomas C. & Archontoulis, Sotirios V. & Jaynes, Dan B. & Sauer, Thomas J. & Parkin, Timothy B. & Miguez, Fernando E., 2016. "Soil water improvements with the long-term use of a winter rye cover crop," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 40-50.
    6. Li, Yizhuo & Tian, Di & Feng, Gary & Yang, Wei & Feng, Liping, 2021. "Climate change and cover crop effects on water use efficiency of a corn-soybean rotation system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    7. Jiang, Qianjing & Qi, Zhiming & Lu, Cheng & Tan, Chin S. & Zhang, Tiequan & Prasher, Shiv O., 2020. "Evaluating RZ-SHAW model for simulating surface runoff and subsurface tile drainage under regular and controlled drainage with subirrigation in southern Ontario," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    8. Jeong, Hanseok & Pittelkow, Cameron M. & Bhattarai, Rabin, 2019. "Simulated responses of tile-drained agricultural systems to recent changes in ambient atmospheric gradients," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 48-55.
    9. Dennis Junior Choruma & Frank Chukwuzuoke Akamagwuna & Nelson Oghenekaro Odume, 2022. "Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields Using EPIC: A Case Study in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, May.
    10. Shokrana, Md Sami Bin & Ghane, Ehsan & Abdalaal, Yousef & Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan, 2023. "Predicting the effect of weir management on the discharge of a controlled drainage system in a changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Huihui & Sima, Matthew W. & Trout, Thomas J. & Malone, Rob W. & Wang, Li, 2021. "Simulated deficit irrigation and climate change effects on sunflower production in Eastern Colorado with CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower in RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Ma, L. & Ahuja, L.R. & Islam, A. & Trout, T.J. & Saseendran, S.A. & Malone, R.W., 2017. "Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PA), pages 88-98.
    3. Jeong, Hanseok & Pittelkow, Cameron M. & Bhattarai, Rabin, 2019. "Simulated responses of tile-drained agricultural systems to recent changes in ambient atmospheric gradients," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 48-55.
    4. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    5. Robert Malone & Jurgen Garbrecht & Phillip Busteed & Jerry Hatfield & Dennis Todey & Jade Gerlitz & Quanxiao Fang & Matthew Sima & Anna Radke & Liwang Ma & Zhiming Qi & Huaiqing Wu & Dan Jaynes & Thom, 2020. "Drainage N Loads Under Climate Change with Winter Rye Cover Crop in a Northern Mississippi River Basin Corn-Soybean Rotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Saseendran, S.A. & Ahuja, Lajpat R. & Ma, Liwang & Trout, Thomas J. & McMaster, Gregory S. & Nielsen, David C. & Ham, Jay M. & Andales, Allan A. & Halvorson, Ardel D. & Chávez, José L. & Fang, Quanxia, 2015. "Developing and normalizing average corn crop water production functions across years and locations using a system model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 65-77.
    7. Shahadha, Saadi Sattar & Wendroth, Ole & Zhu, Junfeng & Walton, Jason, 2019. "Can measured soil hydraulic properties simulate field water dynamics and crop production?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    8. DeJonge, Kendall C. & Ascough, James C. & Ahmadi, Mehdi & Andales, Allan A. & Arabi, Mazdak, 2012. "Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a dynamic agroecosystem model under different irrigation treatments," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 113-125.
    9. Dennis Junior Choruma & Frank Chukwuzuoke Akamagwuna & Nelson Oghenekaro Odume, 2022. "Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields Using EPIC: A Case Study in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, May.
    10. Senthilkumar, Kalimuthu & Bergez, Jacques-Eric & Leenhardt, Delphine, 2015. "Can farmers use maize earliness choice and sowing dates to cope with future water scarcity? A modelling approach applied to south-western France," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 125-134.
    11. Stricevic, Ruzica & Cosic, Marija & Djurovic, Nevenka & Pejic, Borivoj & Maksimovic, Livija, 2011. "Assessment of the FAO AquaCrop model in the simulation of rainfed and supplementally irrigated maize, sugar beet and sunflower," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(10), pages 1615-1621, August.
    12. Xiangjuan Liu & Qiaonan Yang & Rurou Yang & Lin Liu & Xibing Li, 2024. "Corn Yield Prediction Based on Dynamic Integrated Stacked Regression," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, October.
    13. Kima, Aimé Sévérin & Traore, Seydou & Wang, Yu-Min & Chung, Wen-Guey, 2014. "Multi-genes programing and local scale regression for analyzing rice yield response to climate factors using observed and downscaled data in Sahel," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 149-162.
    14. Traore, Seydou & Zhang, Lei & Guven, Aytac & Fipps, Guy, 2020. "Rice yield response forecasting tool (YIELDCAST) for supporting climate change adaptation decision in Sahel," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    15. Saseendran, S.A. & Nielsen, D.C. & Ahuja, L.R. & Ma, L. & Lyon, D.J., 2013. "Simulated yield and profitability of five potential crops for intensifying the dryland wheat-fallow production system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 175-192.
    16. Ding, Dianyuan & Yang, Zijie & Wu, Lihong & Zhao, Ying & Zhang, Xi & Chen, Xiaoping & Feng, Hao & Zhang, Chao & Wendroth, Ole, 2024. "Optimizing nitrogen-fertilizer management by using RZWQM2 with consideration of precipitation can enhance nitrogen utilization on the Loess Plateau," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    17. Li, Yizhuo & Tian, Di & Feng, Gary & Yang, Wei & Feng, Liping, 2021. "Climate change and cover crop effects on water use efficiency of a corn-soybean rotation system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    18. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 142-155.
    19. Anapalli, Saseendran S. & Fisher, Daniel K. & Reddy, Krishna N. & Rajan, Nithya & Pinnamaneni, Srinivasa Rao, 2019. "Modeling evapotranspiration for irrigation water management in a humid climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    20. Fang, Q. & Ma, L. & Yu, Q. & Ahuja, L.R. & Malone, R.W. & Hoogenboom, G., 2010. "Irrigation strategies to improve the water use efficiency of wheat-maize double cropping systems in North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1165-1174, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:323-335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.