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Winter crop sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability in central India

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  • Pinki Mondal
  • Meha Jain
  • Andrew Robertson
  • Gillian Galford
  • Christopher Small
  • Ruth DeFries

Abstract

India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. Here, we examined the sensitivity of winter cropping systems to inter-annual climate variability in a local market and subsistence-based agricultural system in central India, a data-rich validation site, in order to identify the climate parameters to which winter crops – mainly wheat and pulses in this region – might be sensitive in the future. We used satellite time-series data to quantify inter-annual variability in multiple climate parameters and in winter crop cover, agricultural census data to quantify irrigation, and field observations to identify locations for specific crop types. We developed three mixed-effect models (250 m to 1 km scale) to identify correlations between crop cover (wheat and pulses) and twenty-two climate and environmental parameters for 2001-2013. We find that winter daytime mean temperature (November–January) is the most significant factor affecting winter crops, irrespective of crop type, and is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers in similar landscapes would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts and heat-tolerant winter crop varieties. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Pinki Mondal & Meha Jain & Andrew Robertson & Gillian Galford & Christopher Small & Ruth DeFries, 2014. "Winter crop sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability in central India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 61-76, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:1:p:61-76
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1216-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David B. Lobell & Adam Sibley & J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, 2012. "Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 186-189, March.
    2. Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, January.
    3. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
    4. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ajay, Kumar Singh & Kumar, Sanjeev & Ashraf, Shah Nawaz & Jyoti, Bhim, 2022. "Implications of Farmer’s Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Sector of Gujarat: Experience from Farm Level Data," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 3(1), March.
    2. Fouad H. Saeed & Mahmoud S. Al-Khafaji & Furat A. Mahmood Al-Faraj, 2021. "Sensitivity of Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions towards Sustainable Management of Water Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.

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