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Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: the Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California

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  • Romano Foti
  • Jorge Ramirez
  • Thomas Brown

Abstract

We quantify the vulnerability of water supply to shortage for the Colorado River Basin and basins of the High Plains and California and assess the sensitivity of their water supply system to future changes in the statistical variability of supply and demand. We do so for current conditions and future socio-economic scenarios within a probabilistic framework that incorporates the inherent uncertainties in the drivers of vulnerability. Our analysis indicates that the most sensitive basins to both current and future variability of demand and supply are the Central California and the San Joaquin-Tulare basins. Large sensitivity is also found for the Kansas basin of the High Plains. Within the Colorado River Basin, the Lower Colorado and Gila were found to be the most vulnerable and sensitive sub-basins. By accounting for future uncertainty within the above probabilistic framework, this study unveils and isolates the individual responses of a given basin to changes in the statistical properties of demand and supply and offers a valuable tool for the identification of policy strategies and adaptation measures. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Romano Foti & Jorge Ramirez & Thomas Brown, 2014. "Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: the Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 429-444, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:3:p:429-444
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1178-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ferdinand A. Gul & Judy S. L. Tsui, 2004. "Introduction and overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Governance of East Asian Corporations, chapter 1, pages 1-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Romano Foti & Jorge Ramirez & Thomas Brown, 2014. "A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: the case of the US water supply system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 413-427, August.
    3. Adão Matonse & Donald Pierson & Allan Frei & Mark Zion & Aavudai Anandhi & Elliot Schneiderman & Ben Wright, 2013. "Investigating the impact of climate change on New York City’s primary water supply," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 437-456, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruihuan Li & Ping Guo & Jianbing Li, 2018. "Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1827-1847, March.
    2. Srivastava, Lorie & Hand, Michael & Kim, John & Sánchez, José J., 2018. "Projecting the Provision and Value of Water from National Forests in Southern California under Ecological Change," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274840, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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