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Investigating the impact of climate change on New York City’s primary water supply

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  • Adão Matonse
  • Donald Pierson
  • Allan Frei
  • Mark Zion
  • Aavudai Anandhi
  • Elliot Schneiderman
  • Ben Wright

Abstract

Future climate scenarios projected by three different General Circulation Models and a delta-change methodology are used as input to the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions – Variable Source Area (GWLF-VSA) watershed model to simulate future inflows to reservoirs that are part of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS). These inflows are in turn used as part of the NYC OASIS model designed to simulate operations for the NYCWSS. In this study future demands and operation rules are assumed stationary and future climate variability is based on historical data to which change factors were applied in order to develop the future scenarios. Our results for the West of Hudson portion of the NYCWSS suggest that future climate change will impact regional hydrology on a seasonal basis. The combined effect of projected increases in winter air temperatures, increased winter rain, and earlier snowmelt results in more runoff occurring during winter and slightly less runoff in early spring, increased spring and summer evapotranspiration, and reduction in number of days the system is under drought conditions. At subsystem level reservoir storages, water releases and spills appear to be higher and less variable during the winter months and are slightly reduced during summer. Under the projected future climate and assumptions in this study the NYC reservoir system continues to show high resilience, high annual reliability and relatively low vulnerability. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Adão Matonse & Donald Pierson & Allan Frei & Mark Zion & Aavudai Anandhi & Elliot Schneiderman & Ben Wright, 2013. "Investigating the impact of climate change on New York City’s primary water supply," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 437-456, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:116:y:2013:i:3:p:437-456
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0515-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
    2. Alistair Hunt & Paul Watkiss, 2011. "Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 13-49, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyungseok Park & Sewoong Chung & Eunju Cho & Kyoungjae Lim, 2018. "Impact of climate change on the persistent turbidity issue of a large dam reservoir in the temperate monsoon region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 365-378, December.
    2. Romano Foti & Jorge Ramirez & Thomas Brown, 2014. "Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: the Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 429-444, August.

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