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A survey of temporal and spatial reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran from 1960 to 2005

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  • Mohammad Kousari
  • Mohammad Asadi Zarch
  • Hossein Ahani
  • Hemila Hakimelahi

Abstract

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is one of the most important climatic parameters which plays a key role in estimating crop water demand and scheduling irrigation. Under global warming and climate change conditions, it is needed to survey the trend of ET 0 in Iran. In this study, ET 0 values were determined based on FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation over 32 synoptic meteorological stations during 1960–2005; and analyzed spatially and temporally in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. After removing the significant lag-1 serial correlation effect by pre-whitening, non-parametric statistical Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to detect the trends. The slope of the changes was determined by Sen’s slope estimator. In order to facilitate in trend analysis, the 10 moving average low pass filter were also applied on the normalized annual ET 0 time series. Annual ET 0 time series and filtered ones were then classified by hierarchical clustering in three clusters and then mapped in order to show the patterns of different clusters. Results showed that the significant decreasing trends were more considerable than increasing ones. Among surveyed stations, and on an annual time scale, the highest and lowest annual values of Sen’s slope estimator were observed in Tabas with (+) 72.14 mm per decade and Shahrud with (−) 62.22 mm per decade, respectively. Results also indicated that the clustered map based on normalized and filtered annual ET 0 time series is in accordance with another map which showed spatial distribution of increasing, decreasing and non-significant trends of ET 0 on annually time scale. Exploratory and visual analysis of smoothed time series showed increasing trend in recent years especially after 1980 and 1995. In brief, the upward trend of ET 0 in recent years is a crucial issue with regard to the high cost of dam construction for agricultural aims in arid and semi-arid regions e.g. Iran. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Mohammad Kousari & Mohammad Asadi Zarch & Hossein Ahani & Hemila Hakimelahi, 2013. "A survey of temporal and spatial reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran from 1960 to 2005," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 277-298, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:277-298
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0821-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohammad Asadi Zarch & Hossein Malekinezhad & Mohammad Mobin & Mohammad Dastorani & Mohammad Kousari, 2011. "Drought Monitoring by Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3485-3504, October.
    2. Espadafor, M. & Lorite, I.J. & Gavilán, P. & Berengena, J., 2011. "An analysis of the tendency of reference evapotranspiration estimates and other climate variables during the last 45 years in Southern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(6), pages 1045-1061, April.
    3. Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2012. "Identification of Trend in Reference Evapotranspiration Series with Serial Dependence in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2219-2232, June.
    4. Ze-Xin Fan & Axel Thomas, 2013. "Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in Yunnan Province, SW China, 1961–2004," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 309-325, January.
    5. Yin, Yunhe & Wu, Shaohong & Zheng, Du & Yang, Qinye, 2008. "Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 77-84, January.
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    2. Yuxin Tao & Hao Wu & Yitong Wang, 2023. "Rapid Urbanization Increased the Risk of Agricultural Waterlogging in the Huaibei Plain, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Nam, Won-Ho & Hong, Eun-Mi & Choi, Jin-Yong, 2015. "Has climate change already affected the spatial distribution and temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration in South Korea?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 129-138.
    4. Xiaodong Ren & Diogo S. Martins & Zhongyi Qu & Paula Paredes & Luis S. Pereira, 2016. "Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for Hyper-Arid to Moist Sub-Humid Climates in Inner Mongolia, China: II. Trends of ETo and Weather Variables and Related Spatial Patterns," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 3793-3814, September.
    5. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.

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