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Identification of Trend in Reference Evapotranspiration Series with Serial Dependence in Iran

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  • Hossein Tabari
  • Jaefar Nikbakht
  • P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee

Abstract

Monitoring the temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) and quantifying any trends offer valuable information for regional hydrology, agricultural water requirements and water resources management. This study aimed to examine the temporal trends in the Penman–Monteith ET o in the west and southwest of Iran by using the Kendall and Spearman tests after eliminating the influence of significant lag-1 serial correlation from the ET o time series. The magnitudes and starting years of significant ET o trends were determined by the Mann-Kendall rank statistic and the Theil–Sen’s estimator, respectively. For the study period of 1966–2005, a significant positive lag-1 serial correlation coefficient was observed at almost all the stations. The existence of the positive serial correlation in the ET o series increased the possibility of the Kendall and Spearman tests to reject the null hypothesis of no trend while it is true. It was found that the Kendall test was more sensitive than the Spearman test to the existence of the positive serial correlation in the ET o series. After removing the serial correlation effect with pre-whitening method, only three significant increasing ET o trends were obtained at Khorram-Abad, Shahrekord and Zanjan stations at the rates of 0.16, 0.06 and 0.06 mm/day per decade, respectively. The significant increasing ET o trends of Khorram-Abad, Zanjan and Shahrekord stations started in 1997, 1994 and 1998, respectively. The stepwise regression method showed that wind speed was the most dominating variable affecting on the significant changes of ET o . Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2012. "Identification of Trend in Reference Evapotranspiration Series with Serial Dependence in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2219-2232, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:8:p:2219-2232
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0011-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hossein Tabari & Safar Marofi, 2011. "Changes of Pan Evaporation in the West of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 97-111, January.
    2. Li, Yi & Horton, Robert & Ren, Tusheng & Chen, Chunyan, 2010. "Prediction of annual reference evapotranspiration using climatic data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 300-308, February.
    3. Goyal, R. K., 2004. "Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: a case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 1-11, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Kousari & Mohammad Asadi Zarch & Hossein Ahani & Hemila Hakimelahi, 2013. "A survey of temporal and spatial reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran from 1960 to 2005," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 277-298, September.
    2. İsmail Dabanlı & Zekai Şen & Mehmet Öner Yeleğen & Eyüp Şişman & Bülent Selek & Yavuz Selim Güçlü, 2016. "Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5193-5203, November.
    3. Zhang, Lei & Traore, Seydou & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng & Zhu, Ge & Liu, Bo & Fipps, Guy & Karthikeyan, R. & Singh, Vijay, 2019. "Assessment of spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and controlling climate factors over decades in China using geospatial techniques," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-511.
    4. Hossein Tabari & Meron Teferi Taye & Charles Onyutha & Patrick Willems, 2017. "Decadal Analysis of River Flow Extremes Using Quantile-Based Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3371-3387, September.

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