IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v119y2013i3p855-873.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How will climate change spatially affect agriculture production in Ethiopia? Case studies of important cereal crops

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Evangelista
  • Nicholas Young
  • Jonathan Burnett

Abstract

Nearly all of Ethiopia’s agriculture is dependent on rainfall, particularly the amount and seasonal occurrence. Future climate change predictions agree that changes in rainfall, temperature, and seasonality will impact Ethiopia with dramatic consequences. When, where, and how these changes will transpire has not been adequately addressed. The objective of our study was to model how projected climate change scenarios will spatially and temporally impact cereal production, a dietary staple for millions of Ethiopians. We used Maxent software fit with crop data collected from household surveys and bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database to develop spatially explicit models of crop production in Ethiopia. Our results were extrapolated to three climate change projections (i.e., Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Hadley Centre Coupled Model v3, and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), each having two emission scenarios. Model evaluations indicated that our results had strong predictability for all four cereal crops with area under the curve values of 0.79, 0.81, 0.79, and 0.83 for teff, maize, sorghum, and barley, respectively. As expected, bioclimatic variables related to rainfall were the greatest predictors for all four cereal crops. All models showed similar decreasing spatial trends in cereal production. In addition, there were geographic shifts in land suitability which need to be accounted for when assessing overall vulnerability to climate change. The ability to adapt to climate change will be critical for Ethiopia’s agricultural system and food security. Spatially explicit models will be vital for developing early warning systems, adaptive strategies, and policy to minimize the negative impacts of climate change on food production. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Evangelista & Nicholas Young & Jonathan Burnett, 2013. "How will climate change spatially affect agriculture production in Ethiopia? Case studies of important cereal crops," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 855-873, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:855-873
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0776-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0776-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0776-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia," World Bank Publications - Reports 12504, The World Bank Group.
    2. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    3. Clionadh Raleigh & Dominic Kniveton, 2012. "Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 51-64, January.
    4. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haile, Kaleab & Tirivayi, Nyasha & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2019. "Climate shocks, coping responses and gender gap in human development," MERIT Working Papers 2019-052, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Mulubrhan Amare & Bekele Shiferaw & Hiroyuki Takeshima & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 19-36, January.
    3. Teferi, Ermias Tesfaye & Kassie, Girma T. & Pe, Mario Enrico & Fadda, Carlo, 2020. "Are farmers willing to pay for climate related traits of wheat? Evidence from rural parts of Ethiopia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Abate Feyissa Senbeta & Walelign Worku & Sebastian Gayler & Babak Naimi, 2024. "Unveiling Wheat’s Future Amidst Climate Change in the Central Ethiopia Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, August.
    5. Randell, Heather & Gray, Clark & Grace, Kathryn, 2020. "Stunted from the start: Early life weather conditions and child undernutrition in Ethiopia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    6. Amsalu Woldie Yalew & Georg Hirte & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Stefan Tscharaktschiew, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Economic Development in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
    7. Luzian Messmer & Braida Thom & Pius Kruetli & Evans Dawoe & Kebebew Assefa & Johan Six & Jonas Joerin, 2021. "Beyond feasibility—the role of motivation to implement measures to enhance resilience," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1-24, June.
    8. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    9. Abel Chemura & Dumisani Kutywayo & Danisile Hikwa & Christoph Gornott, 2022. "Climate change and cocoyam (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott) production: assessing impacts and potential adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Tsegaye Ginbo, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop yields across altitudes in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Mary Ann Cunningham, 2022. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Biodiversity: How Does Shifting Agriculture Affect Habitat Availability?," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, August.
    12. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 10/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    13. Tamirat B. Jimma & Abel Chemura & Charles Spillane & Teferi Demissie & Wuletawu Abera & Kassahun Ture & Tadesse Terefe & Dawit Solomon & Stephanie Gleixner, 2024. "Coupled Impacts of Soil Acidification and Climate Change on Future Crop Suitability in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Bart Minten, 2017. "Determinants of the Productivity of Teff in Ethiopia," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 29(4), pages 866-892, August.
    15. Tesfaye, Abonesh & Hansen, James & Kassie, Girma Tesfahun & Radeny, Maren & Solomon, Dawit, 2019. "Estimating the economic value of climate services for strengthening resilience of smallholder farmers to climate risks in Ethiopia: A choice experiment approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 157-168.
    16. Michael L. Mann & James M. Warner & Arun S. Malik, 2019. "Predicting high-magnitude, low-frequency crop losses using machine learning: an application to cereal crops in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 211-227, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Paul Chinowsky & Amy Schweikert & Niko Strzepek & Kyle Manahan & Kenneth Strzepek & C. Schlosser, 2013. "Climate change adaptation advantage for African road infrastructure," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 345-361, March.
    3. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-09-efd, Resources for the Future.
    4. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    5. Daregot Berihun & Passel Steven, 2022. "Climate variability and macroeconomic output in Ethiopia: the analysis of nexus and impact via asymmetric autoregressive distributive lag cointegration method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 4064-4087, March.
    6. Asfaw, Solomon & McCarthy, Nancy & Paolantonio, Adriana & Cavatassi, Romina & Amare, Mulubrhan & Lipper, Leslie, 2015. "Diversification, Climate Risk and Vulnerability to Poverty: Evidence from Rural Malawi," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 230216, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Nicole D. Peterson, 2012. "Developing Climate Adaptation: The Intersection of Climate Research and Development Programmes in Index Insurance," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 43(2), pages 557-584, March.
    8. Salvatore Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2018. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), Climate Smart Agriculture, pages 497-526, Springer.
    9. Louise Ella Desquith & Olivier Renault, 2021. "Gestion du risque climatique : les déterminants des stratégies d’adaptation des agriculteurs en Afrique Subsaharienne," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Lisandro Roco & Boris Bravo-Ureta & Alejandra Engler & Roberto Jara-Rojas, 2017. "The Impact of Climatic Change Adaptation on Agricultural Productivity in Central Chile: A Stochastic Production Frontier Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-16, September.
    11. Julius Kotir, 2011. "Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 587-605, June.
    12. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.
    13. Zeenatul Islam & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker, 2017. "Farmers’ perception on climate change-driven rice production loss in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: An ordered probit analysis," Discussion Papers Series 579, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Robert Becker Pickson & Ge He, 2021. "Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions, Adaptation Constraints, and Determinants of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Chengdu," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    15. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2013. "How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 743-766.
    16. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 10/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    17. Tesfaye C. Cholo & Luuk Fleskens & Diana Sietz & Jack Peerlings, 2018. "Is Land Fragmentation Facilitating or Obstructing Adoption of Climate Adaptation Measures in Ethiopia?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, June.
    18. Boere, Esther & Mosnier, Aline & Bocqueho, Geraldine & Krisztin, Tamas & Havlik, Petr, 2016. "Developing country-wide farm typologies: An analysis of Ethiopian smallholders’ income and food security," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246924, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    19. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    20. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:855-873. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.