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The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Henseler

    (Thünen Institute of Rural Studies
    Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP)
    Université du Havre)

  • Ingmar Schumacher

    (IPAG Business School)

Abstract

We investigate the influence of weather on countries’ GDP and their main components of production, namely total factor productivity, capital stock, and employment. Our panel dataset includes annual observations on 103 countries for the period 1961–2010. We find that the main impacts of weather occur through temperature and drive the growth in GDP. Our results show that, for higher levels of temperature, the poor countries are much more strongly impacted than the rich countries. We also find that weather impacts per capita GDP growth through all its factors of production, with the largest impacts on total factor productivity. Again it is the poor countries for which these impacts are the strongest. The findings provide empirical evidence for negative impacts of temperature on economic growth and its factors of production and furthermore point towards climate change as an important driver of international inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02441-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02441-6
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    4. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    5. Damania, R. & Desbureaux, S. & Zaveri, E., 2020. "Does rainfall matter for economic growth? Evidence from global sub-national data (1990–2014)," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Schultes, Anselm & Piontek, Franziska & Soergel, Bjoern & Rogelj, Joeri & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Luderer, Gunnar, 2020. "Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts," MPRA Paper 103655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Somayeh Meyghani & Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi & Narges Salehnia, 2023. "Long-term effects of temperature and precipitation on economic growth of selected MENA region countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 7325-7343, July.
    9. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Berg, Kimberly A. & Curtis, Chadwick C. & Mark, Nelson C., 2024. "GDP and temperature: Evidence on cross-country response heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    11. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    12. Siriklao Sangkhaphan & Yang Shu, 2019. "The Effect of Rainfall on Economic Growth in Thailand: A Blessing for Poor Provinces," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    14. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    15. Wei Wan & Jue Wang, 2024. "The Impact of Weather on Economic Growth: County-Level Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.
    16. Esra KADANALI & Omer YALCINKAYA, 2020. "Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: Evidence from 20 Biggest Economies of the World," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 93-118, September.
    17. Boyuan Zhang, 2022. "Incorporating Prior Knowledge of Latent Group Structure in Panel Data Models," Papers 2211.16714, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    18. Mohapatra, Souryabrata & Sharp, Basil & Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu, 2022. "Decomposition of climate-induced productivity growth in Indian agriculture," MPRA Paper 122613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ling Tan & Kun Zhou & Hui Zheng & Lianshui Li, 2021. "Revalidation of temperature changes on economic impacts: a meta-analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-19, September.
    20. Pañeda-Fernández, Irene & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2024. "Exposure to climate disasters and individual migration aspirations: Evidence from Senegal and the Gambia," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2024-101, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    21. Eduardo Cavallo & Bridget Hoffmann & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Disasters and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Introduction to the Special Issue," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 135-145, July.
    22. Majid Khan & Abdul Rashid, 2022. "(A)symmetry effects of climate changes on economic growth: a panel data analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(4), pages 571-607, December.
    23. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Adel Benhamed & Yousif Osman & Ousama Ben-Salha & Zied Jaidi, 2023. "Unveiling the Spatial Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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