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Impacts of increased variability in precipitation and air temperature on net primary productivity of the Tibetan Plateau: a modeling analysis

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  • Jian-Sheng Ye
  • James Reynolds
  • Guo-Jun Sun
  • Feng-Min Li

Abstract

We analyzed interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and air temperature over a 40-year period (1969–2008) for 11 sites along a precipitation gradient on the Tibetan Plateau. The observed IAV for both precipitation and air temperature decreases with increasing mean annual precipitation. Using Biome-BGC, a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated net primary production (NPP) along this gradient and find that the IAV of NPP is positively correlated to the IAV of precipitation and temperature. Following projected climate change scenarios for the Tibetan Plateau, our simulations suggest that with increasing IAV of precipitation and temperature, the IAV of NPP will also increase and that climate thresholds exist that, if surpassed, lead to ecosystem die-off. The impacts of these changes on ecosystem processes and climate-vegetation feedbacks on the rapidly warming Tibetan Plateau are potentially quite significant. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Jian-Sheng Ye & James Reynolds & Guo-Jun Sun & Feng-Min Li, 2013. "Impacts of increased variability in precipitation and air temperature on net primary productivity of the Tibetan Plateau: a modeling analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 321-332, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:2:p:321-332
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0719-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Noah Diffenbaugh & Filippo Giorgi, 2012. "Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 813-822, October.
    2. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
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    1. Zihao Man & Shengquan Che & Changkun Xie & Ruiyuan Jiang & Anze Liang & Hao Wu, 2021. "Effect of Climate Change on CO 2 Flux in Temperate Grassland, Subtropical Artificial Coniferous Forest and Tropical Rain Forest Ecosystems," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Yu, Rui, 2020. "An improved estimation of net primary productivity of grassland in the Qinghai-Tibet region using light use efficiency with vegetation photosynthesis model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    3. Shuai Ye & Yuejing Ge & Shiyu Xu & Xiaofan Ma, 2022. "Measurement and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Level of Economic Development, Social Stability and Ecological Environment in Qinghai—Thoughts on Sustainable Societal Safety," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.

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