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Die demografische Zeitbombe: Ursachen und Folgen der Kinderlosigkeit
[The upcoming demographic disaster]

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  • Walter Krämer

    (Technische Universität Dortmund)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die deutsche Wirtschaft und die deutsche Gesellschaft als Ganze treiben auf ein demographisches Desaster zu. Der Grund ist weniger das kollektive Altern als die Millionen Kinder, die in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten nicht geboren worden sind, und die dadurch vorprogrammierten Spannungen in einem umlagefinanzierten Rentensystem. Auch ein fortdauernder positiver Wanderungssaldo wird ab dem Jahr 2030 den stark steigenden Abhängigenquotienten nicht verhindern. Kurzfristig geboten erscheint hier einmal eine nicht nur kosmetische Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters und eine effizientere Nutzung des Produktionsfaktors Arbeit durch mehr Ausbildung und Bildung sowie ein schrittweiser Rückbau der umlagefinanzierten Rente in Richtung Kapitaldeckung à la Riester.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Krämer, 2016. "Die demografische Zeitbombe: Ursachen und Folgen der Kinderlosigkeit [The upcoming demographic disaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 10(4), pages 305-323, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:10:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11943-016-0198-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-016-0198-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Silke Übelmesser, 2000. "Wann kippt Deutschland um?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(28-29), pages 20-25, November.
    2. Walter Krämer, 2014. "Interview mit Heinz Grohmann," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(4), pages 269-277, November.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Silke Übelmesser, 2000. "Wann kippt Deutschland um?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(28), pages 20-25, November.
    4. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, January.
    5. Werding, Martin, 2014. "Demographischer Wandel und öffentliche Finanzen: Langfrist-Projektionen 2014-2060 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Rentenreform-Pakets der Bundesregierung," Working Papers 01/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    6. Deschermeier, Philipp, 2016. "Einfluss der Zuwanderung auf die demografische Entwicklung in Deutschland," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 43(2), pages 21-38.
    7. Legge, Stefan, 2016. "Innovation in an Aging Population," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145590, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ralf Thomas Münnich, 2016. "Vorwort des Herausgebers," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 10(4), pages 197-203, December.

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