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When to declare the third innings of a test cricket match?

Author

Listed:
  • Gaurav Deval

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Faiz Hamid

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Mayank Goel

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

Abstract

When to declare the third innings in a test cricket match is a crucial decision directly impacting the outcome of the match. The captain of the side batting in the third innings takes into account factors like lead runs, batting strength of the opposition, favorability of the pitch, approximate number of overs left in the game, etc. to make the decision. The objective of this study is to develop a decision support system for the captain using machine learning algorithms to predict the outcome of a test match at different stages of the match. This will aid the captain to decide when to declare. Several new crucial factors are identified that affect the match outcome. Declaration decisions of past test matches are analyzed using probability functions of win, loss, and draw derived using these models. Previous researches have used only simple regression based techniques to predict the match outcome with low accuracy. Data of 354 test matches from 2008 to 2017 has been used to train and test the algorithms. Support vector machine is found to be the most accurate with an accuracy of 88.8%.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaurav Deval & Faiz Hamid & Mayank Goel, 2021. "When to declare the third innings of a test cricket match?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 81-99, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:303:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04094-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04094-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
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    7. P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
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    Cited by:

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