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Determinants of Sovereign Ratings: A Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Ordered Probit Approaches

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Listed:
  • Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick
  • Robert Brooks
  • Angela Y.N.Yip

Abstract

The paper compares two alternative techniques for the modelling of the determinants of sovereign ratings, specifically, ordered probit and case-based reasoning. Despite the differences in approach the two alternative modelling approaches produce similar results in terms of which variables are significant and forecast accuracy. This suggests that either approach can be used, and that there is some robustness in the results. As regards significant variables, both models find that a proxy for technological development, specifically, mobile phone use, is the most important variable. Apart from the technology proxy, a range of conventional macroeconomic variables are found to be significant, in particular GDP and inflation. The models are then used to produce forecasts for 2002 and for a set of unrated countries. The forecast comparison indicates the critical role played by the technology proxy variable in the modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Angela Y.N.Yip, 2005. "Determinants of Sovereign Ratings: A Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Ordered Probit Approaches," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2005-9
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2005/wp9-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moon, Choon-Geol & Stotsky, Janet G, 1993. "Testing the Differences between the Determinants of Moody's and Standard & Poor's Ratings: An Application of Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 51-69, Jan.-Marc.
    2. T.R.L. Fry & R.D. Brooks & Br. Comley & J. Zhang, 1993. "Economic Motivations for Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variable Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 193-205, June.
    3. Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
    4. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:2:p:273-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bla:ecorec:v:69:y:1993:i:205:p:193-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    7. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2002. "An ordered response model of test cricket performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2353-2365.
    8. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Ratings; Ordered Response Models; Case-Based Reasoning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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